Deep Thoughts
Speculations about China’s cutting-edge drilling ambitions.
“A mouse does not rely on just one hole.” – Plautus
In June of 1986, astrophysicist Thomas Gold spearheaded an initiative to begin drilling for oil in the Siljan Ring near Rättvik, Sweden, home to a large meteorite strike some 360 million years earlier and one of the most unlikely places on the planet to find oil. Gold was a proponent of the controversial theory that fossil fuels are formed not through biogenic decomposition (i.e., not from fossils at all) but through inorganic processes occurring deep within the Earth. He believed this would be the ideal test site to prove his hypothesis.
Several years and $40 million later, some 80 barrels of hydrocarbon sludge were indeed brought to the surface, enough for Gold to claim the experiment a validating success. The consensus of the scientific community begged to differ, citing evidence that the material was derived from the diesel-based drilling fluid used in the operation. Given the costs involved and the nature of the commercial flop, enthusiasm for Gold’s adventures soon petered out.
The biogenic theory of oil falls into the category of seemingly settled science that is largely off-limits to scrutiny. Challenges to it, like Gold’s, often provoke strong reactions. To be clear, the evidence supporting this theory is practically overwhelming. The ubiquitous presence of certain biomarkers in all known oil basins, the distribution of carbon isotopes within such mixtures, and the successful laboratory replication of natural processes hypothesized to produce oil all strongly support the consensus view. The theory is exceptionally useful in the field, both for discovering and fully exploiting hydrocarbon basins, and no meaningful volume of provably abiogenic hydrocarbons has ever been found on Earth.
Despite the strength of this evidence, the belief that abiogenic hydrocarbons exist in great quantities far beneath the Earth's surface remains stubbornly difficult to extinguish. Vast amounts of methane and ethane have been found elsewhere in our solar system—such as those on Saturn’s largest moon, Titan—and the discovery of a similar abiotic reservoir on our planet would greatly alter the global economy. The continued search for them is a textbook example of low-probability, high-impact prize theory in action.
Perhaps no country would benefit more than China in the unlikely event that Gold was proven correct. As the world’s largest importer of crude oil, China has long placed energy security at the forefront of concerns. To compensate for its limited conventional oil and gas reserves, the country has relied heavily on coal and is in the midst of a massive nuclear power expansion. It has also invested extensively in developing domestic shale resources, albeit with mixed results. Against this backdrop, the following news dispatch is intriguing, to say the least:
“China has launched an ambitious initiative to develop world-leading drilling technologies and equipment, aiming to secure its energy future and explore the Earth’s deep interior. As part of a national megaproject, the initiative will see the development of China’s first 15,000-metre (49,200-foot) ultra-deep intelligent drilling rig.”
At 15,000 meters, China’s new borehole would smash records for depth, and the technologies required to achieve such a breakthrough could introduce a major advancement in energy exploration and development. Drilling to this depth raises questions about China's intentions, as known oil basins this far below the surface are exceedingly rare (we’re aware of none). Might the country secretly be searching for abiotic oil in the hopes of permanently severing its dependence on outside sources of hydrocarbons? It’s a speculative conjecture, but one worth digging into.