Empty Chambers
How the chip war threatens US bullet manufacturing.
On March 22, 2024, four heavily armed Islamic radicalists stormed the Crocus City Hall music venue just outside Moscow and committed horrific acts of terror. The gunmen roamed the facility, wantonly shooting civilians in cold blood, before lighting the place on fire and attempting an escape. According to official records, 145 people were killed and another 551 injured, making the attack one of the deadliest in modern Russian history. All four of the primary assailants were later arrested near the Ukrainian border, calling into question whether the attack was planned or coordinated by the regime in Kyiv.
For the small, landlocked country of Tajikistan and its cult-of-personality leader Emomali Rahmon, the incident was an unwelcome development. The terrorists were identified as Tajikistani citizens, putting a spotlight on Rahmon’s rule and the country’s relationship with Russia. Remittances from migrant workers account for about a third of the former Soviet republic’s gross domestic product, and the vast majority of that money flows from Russia, which in turn benefits from access to cheap labor for its large manufacturing base. As in most developed countries, the presence of foreign labor in Russia is not without controversy—it was in the interest of both Rahmon and Russian President Vladimir Putin to de-escalate tensions. The two met in Moscow weeks later, where Rahmon had this to say:
“As for some other issues, I believe that our enemies would like to cause trouble between us, using every means and trick available to divide us. But I think that [they will stumble against] our position; you know that Russia is a strategic partner and ally for Tajikistan. Russia’s largest military base outside Russia is located in Tajikistan. We have not changed our position all these years, and we are not planning to do it now. In other words, we must continue to work and fight jointly against global challenges and global threats.”
Among the challenges and global threats Rahmon was undoubtedly referring to are Western economic sanctions levied against Russia and, increasingly, against its allies like China, which shares a border with Tajikistan. The relationship between China and Tajikistan is symbiotic, with hundreds of millions pumped into Tajikistan to support Rahmon’s rule in exchange for access to its natural resources. China recently funded the construction of lavish new parliament and city hall buildings in Dushanbe to the tune of $370 million. Tajikistan is also a significant beneficiary of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
We suspect that the nexus between Russia, Tajikistan, and China will soon get broader scrutiny. The three countries have near-monopoly control over the mining and smelting of antimony, a strategic metal used in numerous economically and militarily sensitive supply chains. China began to restrict exports in August and recently responded to further US sanctions on the country’s chip sector with a direct salvo of its own:
“On Tuesday, December 3, China announced stringent export restrictions on ‘dual-use’ technologies for both civilian and military use, specifically targeted at the United States. These restrictions double down on previously announced controls on these metals, going so far as to ban shipments of antimony, gallium, and germanium to the United States. The new restrictions marked several firsts in the trade war—the first time Chinese critical minerals export restrictions were targeted at the United States rather than all countries and the first time restrictions on critical minerals were a direct response to restrictions on advanced technologies. Critical mineral security is now intrinsically linked to the escalating tech trade war.”
While the media’s attention has centered on China’s restrictions on gallium and that metal’s outsized role in the semiconductor industry, we suspect curbs on antimony shipments are causing even more alarm in the halls of the Pentagon. Two orders of magnitude less abundant than rare earth metals like cerium, lanthanum, and neodymium, antimony nonetheless plays a critical role in both basic and sophisticated military applications. Let’s explore the market fundamentals of this elusive metal, the potential impacts of the export ban, and how the Western powers are likely to respond.