Limes Disease
Is war with Iran inevitable?
“Sleep after toil, port after stormy seas,
Ease after war, death after life does greatly please.” —Edmund Spenser
In 1747, James Lind conducted one of the first controlled clinical trials in medical history—an experiment that would ultimately alter global geopolitics and echo through the centuries to the present day. While aboard the HMS Salisbury, Lind divided twelve sailors suffering from scurvy into pairs, treating each of the six groups with a different dietary supplement. The pair that received citrus fruits recovered rapidly. By 1795, the British Royal Navy mandated the consumption of citrus aboard all its ships, and limes, with their low price and ample supply, became the preferred source, sticking British sailors with the regrettable nickname "Limeys.”
Although it wasn’t until the 1930s that scientists formally linked scurvy to a deficiency in Vitamin C, Lind’s field discovery gave Britain a useful edge over its geopolitical adversaries. British sailors could remain at sea longer without falling ill, and the Royal Navy’s best officers stood a far better chance of surviving extended voyages. The ability to deploy larger fleets for longer periods proved a tactical advantage that Britain ultimately parlayed into global dominance.
With confidence an absolute measure and arrogance a relative one, becoming the dominant global hegemon inevitably feeds the conceit side of the ledger. History shows that every empire occupying that lofty position eventually expends just as much resource arresting the progress of potential rivals as it does on improving its own absolute performance. For Britain, whose rise to global dominance was rooted in naval supremacy, it became imperative to prevent dependent nations from establishing workarounds to its maritime chokeholds.
For example, consider an admittedly controversial retelling of the events leading to World War I. In 1903, Germany proposed the construction of the so-called Berlin-to-Baghdad Railway to create a direct link to the Persian Gulf. The British viewed the project as a threat to their dominance in both the Persian Gulf and India. Had it been completed, the route would have allowed Germany to circumvent the Royal Navy, connect its growing industrial base to Asian markets, and establish a strategic foothold in the oil-rich Middle East. War broke out before the project could be finished, and—unsurprisingly—the concessions required for completion were revoked in the aftermath.
The World Wars ultimately dethroned Britain as the global naval superpower, setting it on a path to becoming the geopolitical also-ran it is today. The hegemonic baton was passed to its former colonial possession, the United States, whose Big Blue Fleet proved decisive in the Pacific Theater of World War II and served as the foundation of American power projection in the decades that followed.
The US appears to have learned little from Britain’s fall, continuing the tradition of escalatory meddling in infrastructure projects that threaten to redirect critical commodities away from American control. As the signs of an impending conflict with Iran grow increasingly apparent, examining this historical pattern provides valuable insight into predicting the modern flashpoints that could trigger a full-scale war. Let’s put an important one on your radar.