“No one fucks with a Biden.” – US President Joe Biden
This jarring opening quote was caught on a hot mic on October 5, 2022. The President was in Fort Myers, Florida, surveying damage in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian. Having just finished a joint press conference with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, his political rival and potential future campaign opponent, Biden made the aggressive comment as he greeted Fort Myers Beach Mayor, Ray Murphy. Although we have become accustomed to deteriorating decorum amongst our political leaders (having been crudely “grabbed” by the tone Trump brought to the arena), it still stings to hear a sitting US President indulge in such vulgarity.
While it is easy to dismiss such off-the-cuff moments, we were struck by the personal nature of the remark. It’s not like the President said, “this administration,” or even “the US.” He said, “a Biden.” We highlight this curiosity in the context of what appears to be an important personal relationship on the rocks – that between Biden and Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud (MBS), Crown Prince and Prime Minister of Saudi Arabia. The animosity between the two has long been whispered about, and recent events have removed any doubt: Biden and MBS are openly engaging in a titanic clash of personalities, creating a situation that threatens to spin out of control with serious global consequences.
In a piece we published last week titled “Past the Salt,” we highlighted Biden’s growing frustration with his inability to bring down energy prices, and his unprecedented raid of the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) for overtly political purposes (emphasis added throughout):
“Of course, Biden is effectively playing poker with his cards facing up. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC, or OPEC+ if you include Russia) knows what Biden is up to, is aware of the finite amount of oil remaining in the SPR, and will play its cards accordingly. Last week, OPEC+ infuriated Biden by cutting its production targets by two million barrels a day despite a direct plea from Biden’s team to hold off on any cuts until after the midterm elections.”
Events have continued to deteriorate at an alarming pace. On Tuesday of last week, Biden upped the ante with a threat to drain the SPR even further over the winter, implying that he is willing to consider banning exports of petroleum products and “calling on companies to pass through lower energy costs to consumers right away” – whatever that means. Most ominously, the President and his allies in Congress are once again turning up the pressure to pass the No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels (NOPEC) Act, a bill that has been floating around for decades. By opening the door to anti-competitive lawsuits against OPEC and member countries (punishable by asset seizure), the bill is considered a clear act of aggression.
Here are two relevant quotes on the matter from a recent opinion piece by Javier Blas:
“For the last 25 years, NOPEC has been a staple of Washington — always a threat but never a law. President after president, whether Republican and Democrat, have argued against passing it. But Joe Biden, who once supported a similar bill as Senator, has said he’s ready to work with Congress to curb OPEC influence….
“NOPEC has long been considered the nuclear option. No one has answered what would happen next if the bill was passed. Would the US government ask for an antitrust investigation into OPEC? Would it actually go as far as suing the Saudis in federal court? And if a lawsuit is filed and the US does win, can it enforce any compensation? Would it be worth the potential retaliation?”
This most recent NOPEC threat is a dangerous gambit. Unlike prior bluffs, Biden is pointing this particular weapon at a time when his targets have good reason to believe he might actually shoot, potentially triggering a series of preemptive moves and an irreversible escalation that leads to a situation with no winners. If there are dots of potential doom to connect, you can bet we are on it. Let’s dig in.