Power Down Blunder
Australians are asked to forego their dishwashers for the sake of the grid.
“Honor thy error as a hidden intention.” – Brian Eno
If there is a place on Earth where wind and solar technologies should work, it is Australia. The country’s vast coastline and diverse geography bestow nearly ideal conditions for wind energy turbines, and the sun shines brightly and consistently. According to a detailed country-by-country analysis by the World Bank Group, Australia ranks near the top in global solar potential, and some of its largest commercial solar farms can achieve capacity factors in excess of 40%—roughly four times Germany’s average annual performance. By further comparison, similar facilities in the US average about 25%.
Blessed with this vast potential for “free fuel,” Australia has spent countless sums developing renewable energy with the stated intention of mostly ridding itself of fossil fuels. Perusing the ever-helpful Statistical Review of World Energy, we find numerical proof of the pace of change. In 2023, the country produced 28% of its electricity from wind and solar, and solar alone nearly eclipsed natural gas. Since 2010, solar electricity production is up by a factor of 45, whereas coal consumption has been cut by a third. When the next edition of the Review is published in June, all these trends are certain to have continued.
Alas, as sure as night follows day, wherever renewable sources of electricity penetrate a grid to any meaningful extent, skyrocketing prices and electricity shortages are sure to follow. No country—not even Australia—holds veto power over the laws of physics. In June of 2022, the country’s National Electricity Market (NEM) seized up, and spot trading in wholesale electricity was suspended for nine days. Unprecedented intervention from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) was required to stabilize the situation:
“Scrambling to meet supply shortfalls forecast in Queensland and New South Wales for June 14, AEMO was forced to activate 5 GW of generation that hadn’t bid into the market ‘through direct interventions,’ said AEMO CEO Daniel Westerman. While the grid operator managed to avoid load shedding, those interventions, which follow a series of similar near-misses, showed ‘it was no longer possible to reliably operate the spot market or the power system this way,’ Westerman said.”
A predictable set of blamestorming exercises followed, with proponents of renewables arguing that the crisis merely proved more investment was needed to further quicken the pace of the green transition, and the buildout continued apace across the country. Fast forward to the present time. With even more wind and solar installed, grid stability is following suit:
“[New South Wales] NSW Premier Chris Minns’ warning to locals to turn off their dishwashers has been slammed by the [right-leaning] Coalition as the State braces for blackouts amid a sweltering heatwave. It comes as the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) promised to use its emergency powers to ensure NSW had sufficient electricity supply as it swelters through the heat.
Temperatures across NSW soared on Wednesday — up to 12C above average with readings in the high-30s — putting additional strain on the energy grid at the same time that a number of coal-fired power stations are offline with a range of approved maintenance services. Meanwhile, the Minns Government urged residents to turn off or not use their appliances on Wednesday afternoon to reduce the risk of overloading the ‘tight’ energy reserve.
‘We are asking you not run your dishwasher, not to run your washing machine this afternoon... and you’ll be helping the grid,’ Mr Minns said.”
As this excellent documentary, published last week by Sky News Australia, makes abundantly clear, the country is hurtling toward a pronounced energy crisis, yet its political leaders seem deaf to the warnings and blind to its true causes. Having demonized traditional sources of energy, Australia is now all but certain to run short of them just as the vulnerability of intermittent renewables reaches escape velocity.
As one of the most resource-rich nations in the world, Australia is more than capable of providing superabundance to its comparatively small population. What policy options are available to chart a path out of full collapse? We have five straightforward recommendations that will alleviate Australia’s problems. Let’s explore.