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Thanks for sharing this link. This article did age very well.

Loved this bit ‘Those projects will get developed. The geopolitical power vacuum we are creating will get filled. We might not be serious, but our enemies are ruthlessly so. They raise a toast to our self-inflicted demise.’

💯%.

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"the inevitable go-ahead by Germany to begin operating the Nord Stream 2 pipeline"

Well that prediction sure turned out badly.

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it's been more than obvious for years, that both putin and china are pushing the climate agenda on the west, because they see how easy it is to encourage an already under way process self-destructive ideological subversion , in order to encourage suicidal energy policies.

not only that, but china profits on the solar panel manufacturing that helps encourage this stupidity.

you might argue the western globalists really believe they are building a massive unifying project simply because they rely on mutually assured nuclear annihilation to keep the balance. this of course is nonsense. soviet union collapsed without any nuclear confrontation due to corrupt internal economics which resulted in low agricultural production and low oil production , it's dependencies like cuba , were forced to source oil elsewhere and go without.

the west CAN make mistakes, even if the elite think they know better.

i'm sure every empire had an elite that thought they knew better, while enough of a subsect of that elite are now knowingly preying upon the corpse of a zombie economy until there was nothing left.

perhaps the WEF's motto, you will own nothing and be happy eating the bugs, is reflective of an anticipating bottom falling out after oil hits 300$.

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Mrs Ursula has got a longstanding ties with the WEF and i don't think anyone elected her, also, they've been quenching the energy production for years closing down coal plants

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Regarding the photo of Putin "That’s him below, giddy with disbelief at how easy the game of geopolitics has become." What a great line!

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There is so much press recently about the EU mistakes with its energy policy and getting into the hands of the Russian president.

But there is one very important moment left out by most analysts: the whole change of energy balance in EU has been happening with a strong push from US to win a huge share in EU energy market - to battle Russian and Arabian oil there. That push led to create huge LNG infrastructure in EU, well ahead of the imported volume. But recent spike of gas prices globally led to the situation, when US export its gas to Asia, rather than EU, leaving EU partners in the hands of Russian geopolitics. Might be a game to punish Germany for accepting and completing NOrd Stream 2.

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You are too harsh on the old lady =)

I think there was probably the biggest change in EU energy policy towards nuclear for baseload with this tweet. EU baseload needs to be and will be nuclear. That's huge change.

From the source:

https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1451552759736582153

@vonderleyen

We will also assess how the gas, electricity and ETS markets function.

We need more renewables. They are cheaper, carbon-free and homegrown.

*We also need a stable source, nuclear, and during the transition, gas.*

This is why we will come forward with our taxonomy proposal.

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If you weren't afraid, many years ago, of being called a "conspiracy theorist", or even reading what those "tinfoil hat wearing" weirdos were writing, you'd look at the Project in a different way. There is no way you can have a World Government if you have a strong, intelligent, independent and intellectually curious country anywhere on earth. So you have to remove that country. I say this because they aren't "stupid" at all.

I tell this to Conservative types all the time. The shibboleth: "never equate malfeasance with what can be described by stupidity" is one of the best rhetorical fake-outs of all time. If they're so 'stupid', why do they always win? Why are they in positions of power all over the world? Conservative Inc. is the worst offender. They're controlled opposition - the Washington Generals.

Unfortunately it looks like they'll succeed, and the USA will get balkanized. The only saving grace is that this is the 4th generation of what we used to call the "New World Order", and like all 4th generations, they destroy their elder's project because they're not nearly as disciplined, and were handed their positions.

Bill Cooper, G. Edward Griffin, Stan Monteith, Carroll Quigley, John Taylor Gatto, Theodore Roscoe, Edwin Vieira, John Beaty and a few others are the people I'm talking about.

I see stories like this, and if the parameters hurt the West, it's simply more grist for the mill. The X factors that have arisen over the past 15 years are the ascension of Putin and Xi. They aren't cooperating, and it shows how they're portrayed in the press.

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What you may also expect to see is France's electricity exports to neighbouring countries increase further. The national electricity grids are connected in western Europe and France already exports around 10% of its electricity. Which is of course ironic, as France gets 70% of its electricity from nuclear energy.

Also, despite all the US propaganda, Nord Stream 2 is deeply in Germany's interest as it cuts off the middlemen which have been making lucrative gains by doing nothing.

The consequences of not having nuclear energy means that German air quality (still a lot of operating coal plants) and electricity prices are much worse than in France.

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And there are plenty of nuclear power plants in western Europe which are in urgent need of maintenance or decommissioning (as measures of radioactivity outside were higher than they "should" be), yet these do not happen as they are still required as a power source yet the local government doesn't want to invest anything in nuclear. Thus the chances of a nuclear accident increase

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I live in Belgium where our nuclear power plants are gonna be decommissioned. There is zero support to build new ones. So instead we'll build... gas powered plants.

And yes, there are also politicians proposing to just import electricity, likely from France. Doing that they don't have to explain to the population why they're building gas powered plants while also banning gasoline powered cars.

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Not sure whether to learn Chinese or Russian, any suggestions chook?

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Joe Biden is owned by the World Economic Forum.

Expect all this lunacy to reveal itself in America sometime real soon.

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good read. was entirely foreseeable.

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It's pretty incredible how the timing of the current European energy crunch coincides with the global energy shortage.

Nord Stream II was initially conceptualized in 2012, and the financing agreements were signed in 2017.

Putin showing his skill in political jujitsu once again.

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Another article about how the status quo must be maintained. I'm starting to sense a theme.

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Alternatively, an article on how challenging it is to move away from the status quo, and the consequences of doing so without proper understanding of the second order effects of our decisions.

Poor policy decisions are to blame for the situation we now find ourselves in.

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"Poor policy decisions". Sure. But, and maybe it's just me, I find most of this Chicken's articles to be complaining about how things are going wrong, with the intimation that things should be left as they are. It's easy to complain without being expected to supply solutions. "Don't do it like THAT". I'm just starting to sense a one dimensional theme to these articles is all.

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I think solutions were provided. With respect to Europe, it should do more to meet its energy needs without furthering its dependence on intermittent power. With respect to Exxon Mobil, it should develop the resources available to it in Vietnam and Mozambique rather than potentially sell those assets to China. I'm not sure if those are the right solutions, but it's not accurate to say the Chicken is just complaining.

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But this isn't true at all. There are lots of potential solutions available from many credible and serious individuals. Doomberg has written recently about nuclear as part of that.

While I think he has actually written about solutions, the mental models are far more valuable IMO. How can you know how to evaluate options if you have no coherent way of parsing the problem?

An executive once told me that the best employees were industrious and competent. Competent but lazy people were also positive. But the worst combination is someone who is industrious and incompetent.

I'd argue taking action without a good mental model lands someone squarely in that last category.

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As you may. I'm not trying to get into a fight. I just started to be a bit skeptical of this column when there was one about the supply chain shocks and shipping being basically political incompetency. My wife works in shipping and therefore I am aware that it's actually US and EU online shoppers ferking us all up, which went completely unmentioned. I wouldn't have known that otherwise.

So therefore it suddenly seemed to me that the column had a lot more of a political bent and is maybe more agenda driven than the pure realistic commentary I was hoping for. So I started looking at it through that prism instead.

It's to be expected anywhere I guess. I'm just saying that we shouldn't take this as "news". It's clearly "opinion" and even worse, "political opinion" which seemingly doesn't let facts get in the way of a good column from time to time if an engaging story can be spun out.

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Agree. I caught that same bit on Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast. I remember they discussed how unusual this pandemic recession was. I'll paraphrase: "typically you see a reduction in goods before services, but in the pandemic services collapsed due to stay at home orders while goods surged as bored people stuck at home started purchasing more."

Every complex system or market has tons of countervailing forces. It's never easy to net them all and determine the bottom line impact. It's been a useful heuristic to avoid analysis that points to only one factor and ignores the rest. So I appreciate you bringing up an additional factor.

Nor did I want a fight either and excuse me if it came across that way. I appreciate your thoughtful response.

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author

Totally agree

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Oct 22, 2021Liked by Doomberg

I do agree with you about nuclear power though.

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I can't help but think that Putin has to pinch himself daily on his good fortune in dealing with Western fools; our president being the number one clown. The American people do not realize that this will all come around to bite us, as we lose credibility with our once international allies. The day of reckoning will most likely be a shock (cynicism), just like this instant energy crisis, caused by delusions of green gander and based on your last piece that laid it all out so simply and concise. The question now, is where does one with foresight and common sense place themselves for the future? Fortunately, the US is most likely the best choice and hopefully sensible people will rise to the challenge.

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Yeah, we had it coming… I live in Germany and I‘m happy that I have a wooden furnace and sufficient fire wood to keep my house warm if Vladimir closes the gas valve. And I have an RV with LNG heating and stove and I could drive south warmer countries. These kind of thoughts were absolutely ridiculous only 1 month ago - but now a possible scenario.

btw: Ursula von der Leyen has not been elected by a huge margin. In fact she had not been elected at all (at least not by the European voters). That’s a side remark.

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author

I’m aware ;) it was sarcasm

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