“If unification is the cart, peace is the horse. The cart cannot pull the horse; the horse must be in front.” – Chung Dong-young
Beginning in the early 1600s and continuing for nearly three centuries, Korea pursued an unusually strict policy of isolation from the rest of the world. Motivated by repeated invasions and regional instability, the country enforced its seclusion with remarkable zeal. Foreign trade was tightly controlled, and Koreans were effectively banned from traveling abroad. To outsiders, Korea was shrouded in mystery. Virtually nothing was known about its internal affairs. This long-standing isolation didn’t fully end until Japan annexed the country under the Japan-Korea Treaty of 1910.
Thirty-five years later, with World War II winding down and Japan on the verge of total defeat, the question of partitioning its pre-war empire was top of mind among Allied leaders. At the infamous Potsdam Conference of 1945, the groundwork was laid for an eventual agreement between the United States and the Soviet Union that would crudely divide Korea into two zones at the 38th parallel. The north would be controlled by the Soviets, the south by the Americans. Since the division was not meant to be permanent, a simple map published in National Geographic served as the basis for the decision. Natural features like rivers and mountains were not taken into account, and Korean experts were ignored.
As with many instances of foreign-imposed map reconfigurations, hostilities eventually broke out. The Korean War, a bitterly fought 3-year conflict, ended in July 1953 roughly where it began. The Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) has mostly maintained the peace. While North Korea continues to echo the country’s isolationist past, South Korea long ago opened up to the world, pivoting to liberal democracy in 1987 after decades of authoritarian (but business-friendly and export-oriented) rule.
With the global superpowers embroiled in what future historians may well describe as World War III—and with North Korea acting as a key arms supplier to Russia, the adversary of South Korea’s principal allies—it might seem an odd moment to speculate about the possibility of warming relations between the two Koreas, or even full reunification. Yet wars have a way of disrupting metastable states and catalyzing returns to equilibria that once seemed far out of reach. Historically, war has proven a powerful force in the reconfiguration of political borders, and this one is unlikely to be an exception. Using the lens of energy as our guide, let’s explore why.