Trip Wire
Will Estonia trigger WWIII?
“War does not determine who is right—only who is left.”— Bertrand Russell
For centuries, Estonia has alternated between brief periods of independence and long stretches of domination by foreign powers. With a land area smaller than West Virginia and a population of just 1.4 million, its vulnerability is amplified by geography. As a buffer state between Western Europe and Russia with strategic access to the Baltic Sea, the country has often been treated as a pawn between stronger warring parties. Estonia regained its independence when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 and joined both the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 2004.
The Gulf of Finland, a narrow corridor that separates Estonia and Finland, serves as a primary transit route for Russian cargo, including significant quantities of oil. At its narrowest, the Gulf of Finland spans just 32 miles, and a seven-mile-wide stretch near its center serves as an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The EEZ is governed as an international passage under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Under UNCLOS Article 37, Estonia and Finland cannot restrict ships from passing through or otherwise impede passage, except in very limited circumstances.
The small fraction of the 335 million Americans who happen upon this article might be surprised to learn that they have an Article 5 obligation to defend Estonia militarily should it be attacked—and that the odds of such a scenario have climbed measurably in the past two weeks:
“A tense maritime incident unfolded today off the Estonian coast when Estonian naval forces attempted to detain the M/T JAGUAR, a crude oil tanker allegedly part of Russia’s shadow fleet. Estonian forces deployed a helicopter, patrol aircraft, and patrol boat to intercept the vessel, which apparently refused to comply with orders to halt or alter course.
The situation escalated when a Russian Su-35S fighter jet entered Estonian airspace over the Gulf of Finland in what appeared to be an attempt to deter Estonian forces.”
Despite Russia’s long-standing warnings that any interference with its trade through the Gulf of Finland would constitute an escalation justifying a military response, much of the Western media spun the story as Russia violating NATO airspace—as though this were not the response Estonia knowingly provoked. A few days after the incident, Russia sent another message:
“Russia detained a Greek-owned oil tanker on Sunday after it left an Estonian port in the Gulf of Finland, the Estonian Foreign Ministry said, adding it had alerted NATO allies to the incident.
The Liberia-flagged ship Green Admire was leaving Sillamae port using a designated navigation channel that crosses Russian territorial waters, the ministry said in a statement.
‘This is definitely connected to the fact that we have started to harass Russia's shadow fleet,’ Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna told Estonian broadcaster ERR.”
These events highlight a growing rupture between much of NATO’s European contingent and President Trump over the war in Ukraine that could ultimately lead to the US departing the alliance. At a time when Trump—however haphazardly or controversially—is actively pursuing an end to hostilities, many leaders in Europe appear intent on undermining such efforts. Among those pushing back the hardest is the former prime minister of Estonia, Kaja Kallas, who now sits in the prime foreign affairs seat for the European Council. What is an economically and militarily insignificant country doing provoking war with Russia? What are the implications for the United States and its shaky alignment with NATO? This underreported situation deserves our attention, so let’s dig in.