Undeclared
The war on fentanyl escalates in earnest.
“I am a tariff man, standing on a tariff platform.” – William McKinley
In 1984, the British and Chinese governments signed the Sino-British Joint Declaration, an agreement laying out the terms for Hong Kong’s return to Chinese rule by July 1, 1997. In the intervening period, a significant number of Hong Kong residents voted with their feet by emigrating to Western countries. Canada, well-known for its friendly immigration policy targeted at wealthy professionals, was among the most popular destinations. Between the signing of the Declaration and the official handover, about 335,000 Hong Kong residents made the move, most of whom resettled in and around Toronto and Vancouver. According to the country’s most recent census, some 1.7 million Canadians are of Chinese descent today—from both Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland—or roughly 5% of Canada’s total population.
As with all significant migrations, a small fraction of opportunists looked to capitalize on the situation, and Chinese organized crime gangs gained a meaningful foothold in Canada. Given Hong Kong’s longstanding role in international money laundering, it is perhaps unsurprising that such gangs specialized in this key aspect of the illicit underworld. Recent decades have seen a related collaboration between Chinese and Mexican cartels, serving the latter’s need to make drug profits money-good.
Openly linking organized crime to immigration has been verboten in many Western countries. Painting entire communities with a broad brush based on the actions of a tiny minority risks significant social consequences, and Canada is no different in this regard. Until recently, the mere mention of problems like money laundering in casinos, abuse of student visas, or the root cause of the property bubbles in Vancouver and Toronto brought accusations of Sinophobia. However, burying the issues encourages systemic stresses to grow until they can no longer be contained, as the ongoing political crises in the UK and Germany vividly demonstrate.
Given the severity of the fentanyl disaster in the US and the foundational role Chinese and Mexican cartels have played in causing it, it was only a matter of time before the issue rose to the forefront of geopolitics. Enter President Donald Trump. As has been widely reported, Trump stunned the world on Saturday by following through on his oft-repeated campaign commitment to impose tariffs on Mexico, China, and Canada. Aimed at forcing a reversal on the illegal flow of criminals and drugs into the US, the opening text of his executive order minced no words:
“I, DONALD J. TRUMP, President of the United States of America, find that the sustained influx of illicit opioids and other drugs has profound consequences on our Nation, endangering lives and putting a severe strain on our healthcare system, public services, and communities.
This challenge threatens the fabric of our society. Gang members, smugglers, human traffickers, and illicit drugs of all kinds have poured across our borders and into our communities. Canada has played a central role in these challenges, including by failing to devote sufficient attention and resources or meaningfully coordinate with United States law enforcement partners to effectively stem the tide of illicit drugs.”
In the hours after the announcement, Canadians reacted with a mixture of shock, anger, and incredulity at being lumped in with Mexico as a cause of the US fentanyl crisis, dismissing the tactic merely as a pretext for Trump’s “economic vandalism.” Others pointed out that Canada is itself experiencing many fentanyl deaths and is already doing what it can to stem the drug’s domestic production. The tariff gambit provoked a rare moment of national unity for Canadians, and Trump’s constant and unhelpful trolling over making Canada “the 51st state” only drove further indignation. The 30-day reprieve negotiated between Trump and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Monday may have taken the immediate edge off of the dispute, but emotions in the country are still running hot.
Exports account for a third of Canada’s GDP, three-quarters of which go to the US. Trump’s threats therefore still pose an existential risk to its economy. More importantly, for all his bluster, the US president may have a stronger point on fentanyl than his many opponents on both sides of the border are willing to concede. Meaningful action on the issue seems an obvious off-ramp for the Canadian government, which Trudeau appears to have acknowledged with his quick concessions. As is too often the case, the traditional media in both countries are distorting the situation through ideological lenses. Let’s dive into the fray, focus on the facts, and explore what Trump is really up to.