One of the biggest problems in California is that in our central valley, nearly all of the water goes to similar landowners for crop irrigation. This is all well and good, and I support farmers and the free market, but when something like 80% of the fruit and nut crop is exported to places like china (again, all for free trade), the trade off is the problem noted in this article. The central valley is not just the breadbasket to the united states, but the world. We are, in essence, exporting our water at a time when we need it most (including for the western power grid and drinking water!)
Hydroelectric is the key swing generation asset in California. Low water levels in times of drought in California cuts hydroelectric power generation (typically 20-25% of the state's generation normally) to a mere 5%. This increases the call on natural gas and coal generation, increasing carbon emissions. Low water levels also increase the risk and intensity of forest fires which create yet more emissions.
Fascinating review and synopsis of what is the Southwest's (especially Las Vegas) problem.
Whoa! You can't eat poker chips.
Jack Lawson
Associate Member, Sully H. deFontaine Special Forces Association Chapter 51, Las Vegas, Nevada
Author of “The Slaver’s Wheel”, “A Failure of Civility,” “And We Hide From The Devil,” “Civil Defense Manual” and “In Defense.”
WRITE THIS DOWN AND THEN REPEAT IT TO YOURSELF 3x/DAY AT MINIMUM:
"It is literally impossible for anyone who has even a basic grasp of history to believe that any government genuinely has the best interests of its people in mind at any time." – Vox Day
From Jack Lawson… American in 1RLI Support Commando and attached to Rhodesian “C Squadron” SAS Africa 1977-79
Reverse osmosis plants like the one in Carlsbad have three problems..They are very expensive, they use large amounts of energy, and the highly concentrated waste water they discharge in the ocean kills sea life in the area..California is already short of energy, and shut in 200k homes over Thanksgiving..
I used to work in Page AZ where Lake powel is located. This was back in the 90s. The lake was huge. I would add that a very large coal fired plant in Page AZ was recently shut down and demolished. The way the coal was transported to the plant was through a water pipeline. The water ran out and the plant was useless. It was a very large producer. And polluter.
You are correct. Good catch. Some report I read must have confused me. I believe they are interrelated though. Once the slurry line was shut down, the mine may have been unprofitable. Also I belive that Peabody and the power producers saw the writing on the wall and knew the water situation was serious. Also, the water was likely used in other parts of the mining operation.
We’re a long way from discussing the Colorado (which I do care deeply about - I live 500’ from one of its tributaries)! I’m not usually shy about having an opinion on scientific matters - my Ph.D. Is in geochemistry, but I think I have pretty good knowledge of and ability to interpret data from other areas. But radiation medicine I’ll leave to the experts - the hormeisis proponents had their say and the NRC rejected the concept. Instinctively LNT doesn’t make sense to me either, but I’m not sure at this point what will change the regulators’ minds.
I like Zeihan and his takes are incredibly unique and creative. I struggle to put faith in him, however, when he blatantly lets his politics blind him to reality:
Whatever you may think of Tucker… fine, but this would’ve taken a 15 second google search to fact check, and his followers were screaming it in the comments. I often wonder if he employs the same level of rigor for his geopolitical takes.
I also struggle to separate Zeihan's strongly held political views from his analysis. Hard to believe he keeps them at arms length. I have run hot and cold on his work.
Another one I saw, even just a few months ago he was bemoaning the vaccine hesitant and claiming that vaccines provide better protection than natural immunity. All politics aside, pretty much everyone has admitted that natural immunity provides better, longer lasting protection. So it was strange to hear Zeihan say that
Great article. Take the time to read "Cadillac Desert" which was written 27 years ago about the water issue in the West and the travesty the US Govt did. Also note desalinization plants take a tremendous amount of energy. So while a solution creates another problem. It will end extremely bad. Short California!
Energy from nuclear is essentially unlimited. Water desalination & gray water recycling are easily done in a society of plentiful energy. That's why the Robber Barons hate nuclear so much. They promote scarcity not plenty.
John Wesley Powell (the one-armed Civil War Major who led the first running of the Colorado River and who was the first Director of the U.S. Geological Survey) wrote about the need for alternative approaches to settlement and land tenure in the west in 1878 (“Report on the Lands of the Arid Region of the United States”). None of this is new
Ha. Think of Egyptian Cotton. A desert country with ONE water source of water grows a crop that needs a lot of water. Exporting "virtual water" is going to be a BIG thing as soon as people realize that excessive water use for making things in water poor countries is akin to how U.S. Supreme Court Justice George Sutherland (a former U.S. senator and congressman from Utah) colorfully noted in the landmark 1926 case of Euclid v. Ambler Realty Co.: "A nuisance may be merely a right thing in the wrong place — like a pig in the parlor instead of the barnyard." Recycle water for ag. or something...
In California water is already massively exported. Alfalfa is a major user of ag water in the state, with a significant amount of it going to the Middle East. Cali grows (by an enormous margin) most of the world’s almonds (also a big water user), with 80% of them being exported. California also grows significant rice and cotton. The other big water user is for irrigated pasture, i.e. for meat and dairy, some of which is exported.
Good call on the unsustainable alfalfa production in CA, I myself am growing in the state with the 2nd largest production, with far more sustainable water levels: Idaho.
1. Ship water straight south from Canada. We've been expecting you guys for a while. We've got minerals, energy and arable land too. Don't call it an annexation, call it a favorable trade deal.
2. Why is the brine not an issue? Is it repurposed?
There was long ago a plan to dike an area in James Bay fed by big rivers and then recycle that water down to the US as well could facilitate massive stored water (pumped hydro) energy storage. A good project for Musk's Boring company.
It seems that one of the few things left & right leaning politicians and citizens agree on is the common benefit of infrastructure projects.
With an excess of water (ie flooding) in certain midwest regions and a lack of water (ie drought) in others, it seems like an opportunity to build out an interstate/intercontinental waterway system to redistribute water where it is needed. I don't pretend it's cheap or even that simple, but now that we've grown accustomed to things with trillion dollar price tags, let's see what this would take. Even the enviro-sensitivities are mitigated when simply transporting fresh water (unlike fossil fuels or electricity).
This could be a massive federal public works project in collaboration with Canada & Mexico for decades. Who does this type of research and modeling for government, academia, & business?
Crude oil sells for about 1000x what industrial water costs. The economics of transporting water (uphill I’d add) are challenging. Also be aware that water anywhere in the Great Lakes catchment could only be moved with unanimous agreement among the eight Great Lakes states AND Canada
The plan was to recycle water that flows into James Bay through the big rivers that flow into it and have massive pumped hydro energy storage that would also be achieved. It all has to be compared to the cost of nuclear desalination and gray water recycling.
Lordy. I’d forgotten about this one! Having lived in Toronto for 30 odd years during a couple stints in Ontario I’ve paddled two of the rivers that flow into the Bay (Moose and Attiwapiskat). So to start you’d need Canadian federal cooperation, cooperation from Quebec, Nunavut and Ontario, and from numerous First Nations and the Inuit. Installing hydropower on the Quebec side has cost $30bn - with higher project costs I’d suspect $50bn would be today’s tab. That’s just for dams, generators and connection to the grid. On the Ontario side, where a pipeline would have to go, the James bay lowlands are one of the world’s biggest swamps (second biggest peatland in the world). There are a number of potential mining projects in that region, and handling the muskeg is an enormous barrier to development. Proposals to build a road in the region came in at multi billion dollars. A project of this sort would undoubtedly be multi hundred billion when you put it all together
The guy who proposed this has been dead for decades and I haven’t heard about it forever (in spite still of being involved with mining development in the James bay watershed). I’m currently indirectly dealing with negotiating an IBA (impact-benefits agreement) for a single smallish project with a single First Nation - I’d guess you would be at over a dozen First Nations (maybe well over) and you would require consent from them ALL
Googling I saw a more recent (2000) version proposing taking water from Hudson Bay - water (in 2000) was expected to be $2000/acre foot in the US, which is comparable to current costs for desal water - add at least 50% for current conditions I’d guess.
Conserve water, reduce use for water intensive export crops, price agricultural water sensibly, work on grid scale storage and keep building renewables and research safe smr’s.
Yes I suspect the economics would be far better for nuclear desalination & grey water recycling.
Renewables(which means wind/solar) are a total loser and have no place on the grid except in areas on diesel generation or with substantial reservoir hydro or niche applications like off-grid homes. Hydro & geothermal are practical energy sources but more expensive than nuclear and severely limited by geography. Biomass is even more dirty than coal at 3X the price. The current binge of wind/solar builds is a giant scam and the perpetrators of this scam deserve long prison sentences.
Excellent article. Water in California was a staple of my MBA Core Econ class, showing the problems created by lack of price signals (as you mentioned). The presentation featured pictures of *rice farming for export* in the Sacramento Valley, though your Google Maps image of the Imperial Valley works just as well. Most of these problems would be best resolved by putting an actual price on the use (and also production) of water.
Hm! Interesting.
One of the biggest problems in California is that in our central valley, nearly all of the water goes to similar landowners for crop irrigation. This is all well and good, and I support farmers and the free market, but when something like 80% of the fruit and nut crop is exported to places like china (again, all for free trade), the trade off is the problem noted in this article. The central valley is not just the breadbasket to the united states, but the world. We are, in essence, exporting our water at a time when we need it most (including for the western power grid and drinking water!)
Hydroelectric is the key swing generation asset in California. Low water levels in times of drought in California cuts hydroelectric power generation (typically 20-25% of the state's generation normally) to a mere 5%. This increases the call on natural gas and coal generation, increasing carbon emissions. Low water levels also increase the risk and intensity of forest fires which create yet more emissions.
F.off your blindless religion of global warming!
Fascinating review and synopsis of what is the Southwest's (especially Las Vegas) problem.
Whoa! You can't eat poker chips.
Jack Lawson
Associate Member, Sully H. deFontaine Special Forces Association Chapter 51, Las Vegas, Nevada
Author of “The Slaver’s Wheel”, “A Failure of Civility,” “And We Hide From The Devil,” “Civil Defense Manual” and “In Defense.”
WRITE THIS DOWN AND THEN REPEAT IT TO YOURSELF 3x/DAY AT MINIMUM:
"It is literally impossible for anyone who has even a basic grasp of history to believe that any government genuinely has the best interests of its people in mind at any time." – Vox Day
From Jack Lawson… American in 1RLI Support Commando and attached to Rhodesian “C Squadron” SAS Africa 1977-79
Reverse osmosis plants like the one in Carlsbad have three problems..They are very expensive, they use large amounts of energy, and the highly concentrated waste water they discharge in the ocean kills sea life in the area..California is already short of energy, and shut in 200k homes over Thanksgiving..
I used to work in Page AZ where Lake powel is located. This was back in the 90s. The lake was huge. I would add that a very large coal fired plant in Page AZ was recently shut down and demolished. The way the coal was transported to the plant was through a water pipeline. The water ran out and the plant was useless. It was a very large producer. And polluter.
The coal to Navajo was transported by a dedicated rail line.
The coal to SCEdison’s Mojave plant in was a slurry line.
You are correct. Good catch. Some report I read must have confused me. I believe they are interrelated though. Once the slurry line was shut down, the mine may have been unprofitable. Also I belive that Peabody and the power producers saw the writing on the wall and knew the water situation was serious. Also, the water was likely used in other parts of the mining operation.
We’re a long way from discussing the Colorado (which I do care deeply about - I live 500’ from one of its tributaries)! I’m not usually shy about having an opinion on scientific matters - my Ph.D. Is in geochemistry, but I think I have pretty good knowledge of and ability to interpret data from other areas. But radiation medicine I’ll leave to the experts - the hormeisis proponents had their say and the NRC rejected the concept. Instinctively LNT doesn’t make sense to me either, but I’m not sure at this point what will change the regulators’ minds.
The NRC is corrupted by Big Money just like pretty much every Federal Agency. The Big Money despises nuclear energy.
I like Zeihan and his takes are incredibly unique and creative. I struggle to put faith in him, however, when he blatantly lets his politics blind him to reality:
https://mobile.twitter.com/PeterZeihan/status/1507289523390230531
His hate for Tucker Carlson above makes him completely oblivious to the reality below:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10652127/Hunter-Biden-helped-secure-millions-funding-military-biotech-research-program-Ukraine.html
Whatever you may think of Tucker… fine, but this would’ve taken a 15 second google search to fact check, and his followers were screaming it in the comments. I often wonder if he employs the same level of rigor for his geopolitical takes.
I also struggle to separate Zeihan's strongly held political views from his analysis. Hard to believe he keeps them at arms length. I have run hot and cold on his work.
Zeihan appears to be a CIA asset working to steer investment money in a certain direction.
Another one I saw, even just a few months ago he was bemoaning the vaccine hesitant and claiming that vaccines provide better protection than natural immunity. All politics aside, pretty much everyone has admitted that natural immunity provides better, longer lasting protection. So it was strange to hear Zeihan say that
200 or 500?
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2015-imperial-valley-water-barons/
But yes, seems crazy indeed....
Decisions that impact the infrastructure needed to sustain society, SHALL NOT be trusted to the non-science based minds of politicians!
Great article. Take the time to read "Cadillac Desert" which was written 27 years ago about the water issue in the West and the travesty the US Govt did. Also note desalinization plants take a tremendous amount of energy. So while a solution creates another problem. It will end extremely bad. Short California!
Oh, but the green energy revolution will come to the rescue, remember.
Energy from nuclear is essentially unlimited. Water desalination & gray water recycling are easily done in a society of plentiful energy. That's why the Robber Barons hate nuclear so much. They promote scarcity not plenty.
John Wesley Powell (the one-armed Civil War Major who led the first running of the Colorado River and who was the first Director of the U.S. Geological Survey) wrote about the need for alternative approaches to settlement and land tenure in the west in 1878 (“Report on the Lands of the Arid Region of the United States”). None of this is new
Ha. Think of Egyptian Cotton. A desert country with ONE water source of water grows a crop that needs a lot of water. Exporting "virtual water" is going to be a BIG thing as soon as people realize that excessive water use for making things in water poor countries is akin to how U.S. Supreme Court Justice George Sutherland (a former U.S. senator and congressman from Utah) colorfully noted in the landmark 1926 case of Euclid v. Ambler Realty Co.: "A nuisance may be merely a right thing in the wrong place — like a pig in the parlor instead of the barnyard." Recycle water for ag. or something...
In California water is already massively exported. Alfalfa is a major user of ag water in the state, with a significant amount of it going to the Middle East. Cali grows (by an enormous margin) most of the world’s almonds (also a big water user), with 80% of them being exported. California also grows significant rice and cotton. The other big water user is for irrigated pasture, i.e. for meat and dairy, some of which is exported.
Good call on the unsustainable alfalfa production in CA, I myself am growing in the state with the 2nd largest production, with far more sustainable water levels: Idaho.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South%E2%80%93North_Water_Transfer_Project
1. Ship water straight south from Canada. We've been expecting you guys for a while. We've got minerals, energy and arable land too. Don't call it an annexation, call it a favorable trade deal.
2. Why is the brine not an issue? Is it repurposed?
There was long ago a plan to dike an area in James Bay fed by big rivers and then recycle that water down to the US as well could facilitate massive stored water (pumped hydro) energy storage. A good project for Musk's Boring company.
Don't joke about annexation. I mean, we have the Ukraine precedent :)
It seems that one of the few things left & right leaning politicians and citizens agree on is the common benefit of infrastructure projects.
With an excess of water (ie flooding) in certain midwest regions and a lack of water (ie drought) in others, it seems like an opportunity to build out an interstate/intercontinental waterway system to redistribute water where it is needed. I don't pretend it's cheap or even that simple, but now that we've grown accustomed to things with trillion dollar price tags, let's see what this would take. Even the enviro-sensitivities are mitigated when simply transporting fresh water (unlike fossil fuels or electricity).
This could be a massive federal public works project in collaboration with Canada & Mexico for decades. Who does this type of research and modeling for government, academia, & business?
Crude oil sells for about 1000x what industrial water costs. The economics of transporting water (uphill I’d add) are challenging. Also be aware that water anywhere in the Great Lakes catchment could only be moved with unanimous agreement among the eight Great Lakes states AND Canada
It’ll never pass the ancestral burial grounds test.
The plan was to recycle water that flows into James Bay through the big rivers that flow into it and have massive pumped hydro energy storage that would also be achieved. It all has to be compared to the cost of nuclear desalination and gray water recycling.
Lordy. I’d forgotten about this one! Having lived in Toronto for 30 odd years during a couple stints in Ontario I’ve paddled two of the rivers that flow into the Bay (Moose and Attiwapiskat). So to start you’d need Canadian federal cooperation, cooperation from Quebec, Nunavut and Ontario, and from numerous First Nations and the Inuit. Installing hydropower on the Quebec side has cost $30bn - with higher project costs I’d suspect $50bn would be today’s tab. That’s just for dams, generators and connection to the grid. On the Ontario side, where a pipeline would have to go, the James bay lowlands are one of the world’s biggest swamps (second biggest peatland in the world). There are a number of potential mining projects in that region, and handling the muskeg is an enormous barrier to development. Proposals to build a road in the region came in at multi billion dollars. A project of this sort would undoubtedly be multi hundred billion when you put it all together
The guy who proposed this has been dead for decades and I haven’t heard about it forever (in spite still of being involved with mining development in the James bay watershed). I’m currently indirectly dealing with negotiating an IBA (impact-benefits agreement) for a single smallish project with a single First Nation - I’d guess you would be at over a dozen First Nations (maybe well over) and you would require consent from them ALL
Googling I saw a more recent (2000) version proposing taking water from Hudson Bay - water (in 2000) was expected to be $2000/acre foot in the US, which is comparable to current costs for desal water - add at least 50% for current conditions I’d guess.
Conserve water, reduce use for water intensive export crops, price agricultural water sensibly, work on grid scale storage and keep building renewables and research safe smr’s.
Yes I suspect the economics would be far better for nuclear desalination & grey water recycling.
Renewables(which means wind/solar) are a total loser and have no place on the grid except in areas on diesel generation or with substantial reservoir hydro or niche applications like off-grid homes. Hydro & geothermal are practical energy sources but more expensive than nuclear and severely limited by geography. Biomass is even more dirty than coal at 3X the price. The current binge of wind/solar builds is a giant scam and the perpetrators of this scam deserve long prison sentences.
Excellent article. Water in California was a staple of my MBA Core Econ class, showing the problems created by lack of price signals (as you mentioned). The presentation featured pictures of *rice farming for export* in the Sacramento Valley, though your Google Maps image of the Imperial Valley works just as well. Most of these problems would be best resolved by putting an actual price on the use (and also production) of water.