Here's a recent interview by one of the leaders in the rare earth supply chain who's been working on getting legislation passed on RE metals. I highly suggest you listen to this interview because there's a lot you left out of the complete story.
Important to understand why MP is trying to close the loop. As everyone is aware, China is the 900 pound gorilla in the space, but there is a lot of effort to diversify the supply chain. Currently, there are essentially 3 major players on the mining side. China, Lynas in Australia and Mountain Pass in the US. China accounts for ~2/3rds of mining production, with the others making up most of the other 1/3rd. Once you mine the ore, you must separate/process it. This is done using old technology called solvent extraction (SX). It is also what MP previously went bankrupt trying to do. China domestically processes ~80%+ of everything that gets mined. This is the major chokepoint. They've had many years of refining their processes (pun intended), so are extremely good at it. Lynas exports theirs to their Malaysian site to process it, with MP exporting theirs to China (they want to change this). There are some new technologies from companies like Ucore that are developing new techniques to iterate on the SX process. This would dramatically help efforts to diversify the separation process. Yes, environmental concerns also play into this.
I would also add that contrary to what you read in the media, REEs are still subject to substitution effects. Once prices get high enough, OEMs have to make some hard decisions. PrNd, like you mentioned, is mostly used in permanent magnets. But there's no reason we can't still make wind turbines without permanent magnets. It would mean going back to gearboxes from the new direct drive, gearbox-free, turbines. But we have done it before. For EVs, Tesla wasn't using REEs until 2019. They said REEs improved range by 10%. Not earth shattering. For phones, a few things can be swapped, but not all of them. Phone volumes, however, also aren't increasing nearly to the extent of EVs, wind turbines, etc.
For anyone interested, Jon Hykawy over at Stormcrow does an awesome job covering the space.
er, do you have any idea about how many ICE engine car manufacturers went bust between 1895 and 1920? So many pro-capitalist don't seems to understand how the process has worked, and are ignorant of the scams, corruption, and failure that makes it work.
I'm not even sure that I have the current numba of new EV vehicles about to hit the market correct when I stated 200+. I do know whenst the market itself is spekkin loudly and clearly though. But I don't want to #Shock!!! you with my 12 month target for TSLA stonk...so I won't give that to you. The 2 year daily chart "clearly" shows the $500 area as a #Potential resting place for this move lower. And the major oversold trendlow that was just set on Fri 2/18/22 at 837.61 (let's call it 837) also dictates a move to TSLA $502 at "sometime in the future." So let's see ifn the future is now. You can't tell me you don't enjoy watching bearded dudes in skinny jeans and hoodies shitting their pants as they daytrade on the Webull app whilst they cry "Manipulation!!" in unison. Dat's funny chitmon.
I see that Silly Con Valley scam artist Chamath PumpItHiya is involved with the revival of the old Moly Corp. Chamath should be under the jail for creating that rally in Bearded Dude in Skinny Jeans n Hoodie stonk....GME. I was actually watching GME trade live in after hours whenst Chamath Twittled "I bought GME calls to the $150 strike!" and the GenZee went into an absolute dick sucking frenzy to get in at ANY price. GME rose $75/share in like 15 minutes. The next day the high above $400 was set and Chamath came on and Twittled >>> "I took my profit in my GME calls...and I am donating it to charity!" Thanks Chamath, but the load of sploooge that was released all over the faces of the Bearded Dudes in Skinny Jeans trading the Robinhood app almost took Robinhood down in 1 day of trading. Chamath even made dave Portnoy cry like a little beitch. That's what happens whenst you are a clueless GenZeee Mo Ron who worships the Silly Con Valley scammers like Chamath PumpItToYa!
Its the same old story, same old song and dance.....Areosmith.
I remember my father (mid 70s), UAW electrician, having the opinion that "the executives have dollar signs rolling in their eyes, like the wheels of a slot machine when you pull the handle"
Something to that effect.
Financialization, greed, exporting entropy/externalities/inflation/health care.......pick your excuse.
What really scares me, economists and politicians seem to think the production can be switched on and off with the a whim.
The tacit knowledge that has lapsed for two generations to manufacture "stuff" is gone (not passed down through apprentership).
Full knowledge today for youth with a touch screen and 3 buttons on the side, but zero tacit knowledge how to take a spark plug out of an engine, or what scale to put a VOM meter on.....or where the black lead goes.
You cant make stuff to sell with purely abstract knowledge.
America has a sever lack of economic resilience. The same is true at the level of the individual American. Most live one unseen upset from ruin. Resiliency needs to be a grassroots revolution.
The story of one citizen's fight to preserve a US stake in the future of clean energy and the elements essential to high tech industries and national defense.
A good read, but with beijing biden in charge the song == $ell-Out, remains the same.
I believe what you want is the USA to succeed , MP Materials is a Chinese owned and finance fraud ( at best ) and has not ability to produce heavy rare earths - you might want to look into that inconvenient fact - their mineralization is junk AND they have a giant Actinide issue. China laughs every time the USA falls for Molycrap, now MP, same scam, different day.
China laughs every time the USA falls for Molycrap, now MP, same scam, different day. Seems true, GREED=Capitalist international CHINA#1 using usa Capitalism against ANY usa nationalism, or sorvenity! CHINA#1 WINNER! vs usa nationalism=TOM COTTON Patriot LOSER! beijing biden = WINNING, WINNING, WINNING! usa = MSNBC subsidiary of CHINA#1!
Thx for another excellent piece. I ‘m more informed now and encouraged to continue my modest investment in MP materials. Totally with you on onshoring vital supply chains.
Here's a recent interview by one of the leaders in the rare earth supply chain who's been working on getting legislation passed on RE metals. I highly suggest you listen to this interview because there's a lot you left out of the complete story.
https://youtu.be/GoJxsg3aL78
Important to understand why MP is trying to close the loop. As everyone is aware, China is the 900 pound gorilla in the space, but there is a lot of effort to diversify the supply chain. Currently, there are essentially 3 major players on the mining side. China, Lynas in Australia and Mountain Pass in the US. China accounts for ~2/3rds of mining production, with the others making up most of the other 1/3rd. Once you mine the ore, you must separate/process it. This is done using old technology called solvent extraction (SX). It is also what MP previously went bankrupt trying to do. China domestically processes ~80%+ of everything that gets mined. This is the major chokepoint. They've had many years of refining their processes (pun intended), so are extremely good at it. Lynas exports theirs to their Malaysian site to process it, with MP exporting theirs to China (they want to change this). There are some new technologies from companies like Ucore that are developing new techniques to iterate on the SX process. This would dramatically help efforts to diversify the separation process. Yes, environmental concerns also play into this.
I would also add that contrary to what you read in the media, REEs are still subject to substitution effects. Once prices get high enough, OEMs have to make some hard decisions. PrNd, like you mentioned, is mostly used in permanent magnets. But there's no reason we can't still make wind turbines without permanent magnets. It would mean going back to gearboxes from the new direct drive, gearbox-free, turbines. But we have done it before. For EVs, Tesla wasn't using REEs until 2019. They said REEs improved range by 10%. Not earth shattering. For phones, a few things can be swapped, but not all of them. Phone volumes, however, also aren't increasing nearly to the extent of EVs, wind turbines, etc.
For anyone interested, Jon Hykawy over at Stormcrow does an awesome job covering the space.
Terrific and insightful article.
On a Mo Impotent note as it relates to this article about MP Materials Corp, we have over 200 different electric vehicles that are scheduled to come to market over the next 2 years. That means the fact that the fantasy will fail "should be" obvious to everyone based on past history of market adjustments to malinvestment. But once again, it is sooo obvious that nobody sees it. Even the pig that is Tesla stonk (TSLA) is on it's way to a bankruptcy filing, whilst the stonks that the #SuckiestOfSuckas chased, like NIO, RIVN, LCID, etc are literaly in a mad rush to bankruptcy. The windup? MP Materials will file for bankruptcy for a second time. It may well be the only EV play that hasn't yet begun to crack. But whenst it does...it'll be like shit thru a goose on that initial selloff. The target price above to initiate a short is very easy to see on this linked chart. Does anybody else here see it? Post your #Guess in reply ifn yawnto. https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=mp&x=48&y=7&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=2%2F18%2F2017&freq=7&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1024&lf2=2&lf3=8&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
er, do you have any idea about how many ICE engine car manufacturers went bust between 1895 and 1920? So many pro-capitalist don't seems to understand how the process has worked, and are ignorant of the scams, corruption, and failure that makes it work.
I'm not even sure that I have the current numba of new EV vehicles about to hit the market correct when I stated 200+. I do know whenst the market itself is spekkin loudly and clearly though. But I don't want to #Shock!!! you with my 12 month target for TSLA stonk...so I won't give that to you. The 2 year daily chart "clearly" shows the $500 area as a #Potential resting place for this move lower. And the major oversold trendlow that was just set on Fri 2/18/22 at 837.61 (let's call it 837) also dictates a move to TSLA $502 at "sometime in the future." So let's see ifn the future is now. You can't tell me you don't enjoy watching bearded dudes in skinny jeans and hoodies shitting their pants as they daytrade on the Webull app whilst they cry "Manipulation!!" in unison. Dat's funny chitmon.
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=tsla&x=54&y=8&time=9&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=2%2F18%2F2017&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1024&lf2=2&lf3=8&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
I see that Silly Con Valley scam artist Chamath PumpItHiya is involved with the revival of the old Moly Corp. Chamath should be under the jail for creating that rally in Bearded Dude in Skinny Jeans n Hoodie stonk....GME. I was actually watching GME trade live in after hours whenst Chamath Twittled "I bought GME calls to the $150 strike!" and the GenZee went into an absolute dick sucking frenzy to get in at ANY price. GME rose $75/share in like 15 minutes. The next day the high above $400 was set and Chamath came on and Twittled >>> "I took my profit in my GME calls...and I am donating it to charity!" Thanks Chamath, but the load of sploooge that was released all over the faces of the Bearded Dudes in Skinny Jeans trading the Robinhood app almost took Robinhood down in 1 day of trading. Chamath even made dave Portnoy cry like a little beitch. That's what happens whenst you are a clueless GenZeee Mo Ron who worships the Silly Con Valley scammers like Chamath PumpItToYa!
Its the same old story, same old song and dance.....Areosmith.
I remember my father (mid 70s), UAW electrician, having the opinion that "the executives have dollar signs rolling in their eyes, like the wheels of a slot machine when you pull the handle"
Something to that effect.
Financialization, greed, exporting entropy/externalities/inflation/health care.......pick your excuse.
What really scares me, economists and politicians seem to think the production can be switched on and off with the a whim.
The tacit knowledge that has lapsed for two generations to manufacture "stuff" is gone (not passed down through apprentership).
Full knowledge today for youth with a touch screen and 3 buttons on the side, but zero tacit knowledge how to take a spark plug out of an engine, or what scale to put a VOM meter on.....or where the black lead goes.
You cant make stuff to sell with purely abstract knowledge.
Well thought out, balanced analysis
America has a sever lack of economic resilience. The same is true at the level of the individual American. Most live one unseen upset from ruin. Resiliency needs to be a grassroots revolution.
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/31450945-sellout Sellout: How Washington Gave Away America's Technological Soul, and One Man's Fight to Bring It Home
by Victoria Bruce (Goodreads Author)
4.59 · Rating details · 44 ratings · 20 reviews
The story of one citizen's fight to preserve a US stake in the future of clean energy and the elements essential to high tech industries and national defense.
A good read, but with beijing biden in charge the song == $ell-Out, remains the same.
I believe what you want is the USA to succeed , MP Materials is a Chinese owned and finance fraud ( at best ) and has not ability to produce heavy rare earths - you might want to look into that inconvenient fact - their mineralization is junk AND they have a giant Actinide issue. China laughs every time the USA falls for Molycrap, now MP, same scam, different day.
China laughs every time the USA falls for Molycrap, now MP, same scam, different day. Seems true, GREED=Capitalist international CHINA#1 using usa Capitalism against ANY usa nationalism, or sorvenity! CHINA#1 WINNER! vs usa nationalism=TOM COTTON Patriot LOSER! beijing biden = WINNING, WINNING, WINNING! usa = MSNBC subsidiary of CHINA#1!
Wonderful article. I'm glad that greater self reliance on rare earth minerals has become a bipartisan issue.
++Impressive
No body ever talks about Energy Fuel....(UUUU)
Energy Fuel is the only current USA company with a plan for Actinides, we are trying to add to that very short list
Great read as always! Keep up the good work :)
You whould really mention why the US allowed China to take control of rare earth production. In short, they are happy to destroy large ares of land to mine it cheaply. https://hir.harvard.edu/not-so-green-technology-the-complicated-legacy-of-rare-earth-mining/#:~:text=Both%20methods%20produce%20mountains%20of,one%20ton%20of%20radioactive%20residue.
Thx for another excellent piece. I ‘m more informed now and encouraged to continue my modest investment in MP materials. Totally with you on onshoring vital supply chains.