Hi Doombergers

As I read more from the Green Chicken, I realise that I've been asking questions in the wrong places.

For instance, I was given a Ask Me Anything invite to my realvision sub. I wrote about the biggest market & energy narrative that I think might be upside down.

I'm pasting in my AMA questions here, on a doomberg energy related article. I might get a good response here (I got nothing from realvision - the macro has been steamrolled by crypto, which is putting me to sleep)


Hello Realvision and hello Raoul,

As I'm likely to be on the road when the AMA occurs, I thought it best to write it up now.

It's an old idea that having some inside knowledge is the manner in which many successful investments are made.

This doesn't seem like inside information - it's right in all our faces.

The USA is NOT a net oil exporter. Let me quote the Economist https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/10/24/what-donald-trump-did-for-hydrocarbons

""Rising American output does not mean the country is independent —in 2019 it imported 9.1m barrels a day of foreign petroleum. Nor is America immune from swings in the global market. Last year crude prices spiked after an attack on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. Because America’s oil industry has grown, says Jason Bordoff of Columbia University, “we are more vulnerable to the economic harm that comes from an oil price collapse.” When Mr Trump faced sinking prices this year, he had to ask Riyadh and Moscow to cut output. “The consequence,” Mr Bordoff argues, “was to strengthen the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Russia.”"

I am amazed how many people will almost scream at me when I suggest the USA is an oil importer. The coverage that this narrative has had simply astounds me - everybody buys it. I know it's complicated by all kinds of factors (quality of oil, gas to liquids, imported crude for refining), but the fact remains. USA has 5% of the worlds population, uses ~25% of the resources ~=20-22 mb/day and did produce 13 in a recent peak.

Importer of Oil.

With the best ESG intentions, I think this matters. America will invade another country to assure its oil supplies. Since they seem to have bailed out of the middle east, I'd say Venezuela is next.

So, here's my question.... where does an Aussie put some money behind this thought, given I can't really buy oil futures or own bits of exxon?

-- Ben Burke

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This is the article I’ve been hoping you’d write, because I was wondering about what oil is really worth in inflation adjusted terms these days, and I think you’re probably pretty spot on. I think Shadow Stats is on the high side, but I will buy inflation of 2% OVER CPI, since forever, basically. Almost.

Frankly though, Chickenman, I don’t think the government will let oil get much above $150 without trying some kind of economic coercion to beat the price back down. Not sure what they’d do, but price controls have been tried in the past, and that’s one possibility. Maybe subsidies, which makes no sense either, but it at least doesn’t punish the producers (or investors) directly.

Especially when we have people like Warren (whom I’m increasingly sure is calling the shots) who want to blame inflation on greedy capitalists anyway...and a fair number of younger citizens who think the government should run everything for the greatest good of the greatest number, too.

I’d rather see oil stay fairly cheap, but you just proved that, say, $150 for WTI IS cheap. So I expect to get somewhwere close....

As a guy who is stacking oil stocks and other commodity stocks as fast as I can, I’d love to see this play out over a few more years instead of going full crisis right away. At current oil prices the producers have so much free cash they hardly know what to do with it all. I own 34 O&G names now, and I could easily find that many other great companies to buy, US, Canadian, Brazilian, French, UK..they’re all the beneficiaries of this crazy-ass narrative promoted by the climate change campaigners. I’m not a denier, but I don’t see anybody trading in their SUV’s and muscle cars for Chevy Bolts....I own EV cars....but anybody who knows anything about cars knows they all have energy embedded in the manufacturing process, and electricity doesn’t get created from nothing. We live in a math challenged delusional world.

I expect the pendulum to swing hard politically, because Biden and company are pissing off everybody other than their progressive base....and they are still a voting minority, for the moment. Any half-ass reasonable Republican candidates for Congress or the WH should wipe the floor with the Dems. The only thing the GOP can do wrong is to go full populist and support more lunatic fringe candidates.....Not sure they won’t however.

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Excellent. I’ve been saying this for a year and it’s so true …. “In July 2008, the price of oil peaked at $145 a barrel, but that’s in nominal terms. A dollar today, 13 years later, does not have the same purchasing power as a dollar then. If we use the official Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate of approximately 2%, the actual all-time high for oil in today’s dollars is closer to $190 a barrel.”

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The very function of Blackrock has been on concentration of real assets and all these renewables gobble up large swaths of land (in offshore wind - land underneath the sea)

It's the most sustainable for their business continuity..... and now Fink's pivot to ESG is a business opportunism which they proclaim (opportunistic) in their corporate culture.

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So in essence: Big oil on „buy“?

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Would be just lovely if you described an accompanying trade to opportunize on.

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And yes, I need the hand-holding.

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Look at 2023-2025 oil futures call options, stupid cheap IMO, last time I looked the 100$ 2025 strike was at 2$ meaning, 150$ oil gives you 25x return. Obviously not investment advice.

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Would've been great if you took into consideration change in both demand and supply between 2008 and now to see how much it could explain vis-a-vis the divergence between price of oil and gold since then

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"Higher prices it shall be. The only way out is through." -- great line!

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The plan to regulate fossil fuels out of existence


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This is brilliant. Thank you.

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January 27 Executive Order establishing "The White House Environmental Justice Advisory Council"

Sec. 202. White House Office of Domestic Climate Policy.

There is hereby established the White House Office of Domestic Climate Policy (Climate Policy Office) within the Executive Office of the President


Released on May 13 from the White House Environmental Justice Advisory Council

The top 4 no-nos ( will not benefit a community ) P. 57

1. Fossil fuel procurement, development, infrastructure repair that would in any way extend lifespan or production capacity, transmission system investments to facilitate fossil-fired generation or any related subsidy.

2. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) or carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS)

3. Direct air capture

4. The procurement of nuclear power


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Even R&D is a no-no... wtf

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