Hmmmmm. Not sure seasonal gasoline import patterns pre-2022 is a very robust data point to refute the impact. Unconvinced. India export data show nothing to Russia.
If there is one thing I have learned in my 75 years, it is that all governments lie. All the time. About anything that makes them look better, or enhances their power. This is true especially, in times of war. I pay less and less attention to "news", such as it is. It takes a lot of time and effort to sort out the truth from all the BS. It is rarely worth the effort.
Doomberg - Once again, you are perhaps the one source that actually does the work involved in getting the real story. That said, the bigger story is the decline in free speech. It seems to be reality in the EU - hopefully not quite yet in the US. But regardless, there is no shortage of propaganda, bad reporting, outright dishonesty from previously respected sources...and now we have AI for videos which creates a whole new opportunity for BS. God help us.
Thank you for reminding me to slow down and evaluate..there are so many material hot spots, that it requires an effort to gear down to digest the info before moving to the next story or hot spot.
When climate was one of a few hot spots in the news just 5-10 years ago it was much easier to parse the headline, quickly lookup some data and conclude - “fair point” or “complete manipulation”.
Tougher today and impossible if I’m ripping thru news like a kid plowing through a bowl of crunch berries!
I can’t help but think that a massive energy shortage is the objective and that all Big Powers are in on it. All the world’s a stage afterall. It’s all part of the Malthusian death cult behind the technocratic power system that has been the long term goal for decades. Cull the underclass through endless war (bonus points for Christians), continue policies which no country wants so the infighting can continue as the needed distraction, manufacture as many debt slaves as we can, and curtail their activity by limiting their freedom (of expression, of thought, and soon with the energy shock, of movement). Soon the data centres will be complete (spoiler alert, the fact they don’t make money doesn’t matter), the surveillance grid in place, CBDCs at the ready and Canada’s MAID (medical assisted dying) perfected for those who can’t hack it. The Covid lockdowns and fear-mongering were merely a test run. It’s dystopian, it’s counterfeit, it defies human reason.
Back in 2016 we were recruiting computer programmers in Kiev and Kharkiv ( and Belarus) and the number of capable, hardworking programmers was remarkable . The business never made it but what was unforgettable was that in almost every interview we would be warned how corrupt their country was and that we need to be careful etc etc. These “warnings” would come out of the blue and sure enough in the various indexes of global corruption the Ukraine - which by this point 2016 we were heavily meddling with - topped the list ! These were of the years when young Biden was providing his leadership skills there and so forth. That some 5-6 years later we would be shipping tens of billions of dollars over there almost weekly without - any auditing of course - seemed especially symbolic of the real world and why we need the various quotes from Orwell etc so we stay on our toes!
Between the increasing tendency of both media outlets and governments to both censor information sources and engage in propaganda, Doomberg might soon be my sole remaining trusted news source.
Did you break the 105k listens from ENB podcast with Stu? BTW this is actual journalism, SubStack is filling a big void for people interested in informing themselves. Good work as always.
Completely agree with the first two paragraphs. The rest is trying to cut through the fog. I've given up on that.
To me what counts is the final result at the gas station for ordinary folks. That is higher gas prices almost everywhere. Globally. (Even with oil massively cheaper. Refineries run at 95-98%, riding the wave they won't see for ages again.)
In Russia there is gas rationing taking place. Check social media. Russian. So, whatever the true reason, something made the refineries or the logistics falter. And holidays in Crimea are no longer booked as in recent years. Same rational.
PS This is not arguing that Ukraine is winning or gaining ground. In my eyes both in Iran and Ukraine a prolonging conflict is affecting all of us and bringing us nearer to the brink of an all out war. Because the big powers are not able to arrive at a true victory. With conflicts they started, being convinced to get a quick win in a fortnight.
What our dear overlords in Brussels want is that we can´t read all the propaganda but have to rely on the home made one only. What could possibly go wrong?!
Ignorance Is Strength
I mean, this quote is so old, we all know they all are lying:
"People never lie so much as after a hunt, during a war, or before an election."
(Otto von Bismarck)
Reminds me of Rick Rule whom I listened to yesterday. He said that it is so convenient, you don´t need to actually listen to it, it is sufficient to observe: that when the lips of a politician move you know for certain that the politician lies.
Doomberg appeared on Stu´s podcast (Energy News Beat) some days ago and gave a teaser regarding this article. He also expected some heavy backlash - controversial topic, controversial views.
To be honest: I am flabbergasted why anyone would find something massively controversial in this piece?! Doomberg even stated he can´t be sure if this drone attack (the fire element) was AI or not, probably not, but who knows?!
I end with another quote which nails it as well:
"I have certain rules I live by. My first rule: I don't believe anything the government tells me"
“Threats to freedom of speech, writing and action, though often trivial in isolation, are cumulative in their effect and, unless checked, lead to a general disrespect for the rights of the citizen” George Orwell. Seems like Europe has forgotten his warnings
Canada is now solidly on that path with its Bill C 22. Sadly for all Canadians, regardless of political stripe, I only see the restrictions getting tighter under the current government. Which is likely to be in power for a long time.
I couldn't find any mention in your article of Russia's diesel export suspension for July. Global diesel prices are pretty extended, to not take advantage of that market is perhaps compelling evidence that the Ukrainian attacks are a bit more than a "manageable nuisance"?
Positive. However, your verdict - to me - looks way too positive. On the basis of the proof you provided (way more so by my reading of Russian social media).
"Our verdict—subject to change should new inbound information arrive—is that the drone attacks on Russia’s refineries are a manageable nuisance for the Putin regime."
Since there are fears of new conscription waves in Russia (yes, in Ukraine as well).
But you are an experienced writer and always leave a backdoor open. That's fine. Still, it reminds me of politicians arguing their way out of something coming across as a definitive statement.
Let me define “manageable nuisance” for you as we intended it to be read: A real problem, unlikely to materially change the arc of the war, and certainly has no positive outcomes for NATO…
Internally it's going to become a headache for him. We'll see how it develops. I've read about him sending his yachts alredy to Turkey. But neither trust the source nor know the reason, if true. Speculation was he gets ready for whatever will happen in Moscow.
Exactly. See the article in this morning’s FT, July 10, about lines at gas stations in every part of Russia, with quotes. You could also speculate that sending in some drones, especially in a swarm of hundreds, with gasoline in the nose instead of explosives is a cheap way to do some damage when hitting a target that should burn nicely, and save the explosives for chasing down individual soldiers at the front.
Whatever the situation on the ground in Russia/Ukraine, there is no doubt the European turn toward authoritarianism is the most disturbing outcome of that war. from my vantage point in the US, it appears that the premise that drove WWII (that's 2 not 11 🤣) has been completely lost as the current EU leadership sees their world view crumble around them and are doing all they can, which is still a lot, to maintain their power. Alas, Orwell knew what he was talking about.
"if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you", said German philosopher Nietzsche. It's true for Germany and the EU - gaze long enough into more authoritarian systems like China and Russia, and become like them.
That seems to be the way all of us follow right now. I don't know what sense it makes to always blame Europe (who are on a downward slope). Seen from this side of the Atlantic, the US is on a downward slope as well.
Feeding these feelings of contempt doesn't help anyone. Throughout history, this has often led to massive conflicts. Europe has centuries of experience with this. Perhaps that's why they behave like they do.
Why are Brussels & Berlin etc. hell-bent on not opening a diplomatic channel, on escalating (4555th sanctions round), on punishing each & everyone who thinks in the opposite direction?
I have a funny feeling that our dear overlords require a conflict, a war to hide the true reasons why Europe is on the mentioned downward slope.
Folks, we learn from history. We had centuries of wars. The Montan Union (first stage of European Union) war founded to get us economically intertwined. And 80 years without war in Europe are a never before seen period.
You guys might have forgotten that France was the arch enemy of Germany. Gone.
You guys might have forgotten that Germay was divided. I lived through this. Gone.
You guys might have forgotten that we had COMECON. Gone.
And we still live in peace. That's an achievement. And if the price for this is Brussels. So be it. Yes, a high price. But still better than fleeing your property and starting all over again. As my grandparents had to do.
Let's be thankful for what we have and work for a better future. Together.
PS I speak Russian and do love the Russian people and culture. Still, crossing the border of a different country is a no-go. Especially, since exactly this country came into existence by your signature. Plus you guaranteeing for its safety in order to get it nuke-free.
However, checking youtube or commercial satellite pictures related to the Iran war, backdoors in all our operating software etc. - the US is no stranger to this as well.
But my main point is - WHY stoking these sentiments while we still need each other. There are other foes to fight against than countries you need for your military action.
Canada has just joined a German/Norwegian sub-consortium. Canada has just bought Australian radar equipment. There is a reason for that.
I can only speak for us: Our strongly anti-EU position is a decidedly pro-European citizen position. We would prefer our German friends not be on the receiving end of a Russian nuke, for example.
Until now the idea of the American-European treaty was that the US shields us from Russian nukes. By stationing their troops/systems in Europe and following certain protocols.
That can be withdrawn. Definitely agree. And then it's our problem. (Although you and I agree, that Vlad Putin might not be interested in starting a war with Western Europe.)
However, pls. leave the change or non-change of the political system to European folks. Otherwise it might not end well. (Orban lost in part because Trumpian/Vancian support didn't go well here.)
I went through this in Eastern Germany. And only after we, the people, went into the streets, things had a happy end.
Hmmmmm. Not sure seasonal gasoline import patterns pre-2022 is a very robust data point to refute the impact. Unconvinced. India export data show nothing to Russia.
If there is one thing I have learned in my 75 years, it is that all governments lie. All the time. About anything that makes them look better, or enhances their power. This is true especially, in times of war. I pay less and less attention to "news", such as it is. It takes a lot of time and effort to sort out the truth from all the BS. It is rarely worth the effort.
Funny. Big part of chapter 1 of our upcoming book - and it’s not just governments!
Doomberg - Once again, you are perhaps the one source that actually does the work involved in getting the real story. That said, the bigger story is the decline in free speech. It seems to be reality in the EU - hopefully not quite yet in the US. But regardless, there is no shortage of propaganda, bad reporting, outright dishonesty from previously respected sources...and now we have AI for videos which creates a whole new opportunity for BS. God help us.
God help us, indeed.
Thank you for reminding me to slow down and evaluate..there are so many material hot spots, that it requires an effort to gear down to digest the info before moving to the next story or hot spot.
When climate was one of a few hot spots in the news just 5-10 years ago it was much easier to parse the headline, quickly lookup some data and conclude - “fair point” or “complete manipulation”.
Tougher today and impossible if I’m ripping thru news like a kid plowing through a bowl of crunch berries!
It’s certainly not easy!
I can’t help but think that a massive energy shortage is the objective and that all Big Powers are in on it. All the world’s a stage afterall. It’s all part of the Malthusian death cult behind the technocratic power system that has been the long term goal for decades. Cull the underclass through endless war (bonus points for Christians), continue policies which no country wants so the infighting can continue as the needed distraction, manufacture as many debt slaves as we can, and curtail their activity by limiting their freedom (of expression, of thought, and soon with the energy shock, of movement). Soon the data centres will be complete (spoiler alert, the fact they don’t make money doesn’t matter), the surveillance grid in place, CBDCs at the ready and Canada’s MAID (medical assisted dying) perfected for those who can’t hack it. The Covid lockdowns and fear-mongering were merely a test run. It’s dystopian, it’s counterfeit, it defies human reason.
Dystopian 😂
You disagree? 😉
Hard to with much of it
Back in 2016 we were recruiting computer programmers in Kiev and Kharkiv ( and Belarus) and the number of capable, hardworking programmers was remarkable . The business never made it but what was unforgettable was that in almost every interview we would be warned how corrupt their country was and that we need to be careful etc etc. These “warnings” would come out of the blue and sure enough in the various indexes of global corruption the Ukraine - which by this point 2016 we were heavily meddling with - topped the list ! These were of the years when young Biden was providing his leadership skills there and so forth. That some 5-6 years later we would be shipping tens of billions of dollars over there almost weekly without - any auditing of course - seemed especially symbolic of the real world and why we need the various quotes from Orwell etc so we stay on our toes!
Heard similar things, of course
Between the increasing tendency of both media outlets and governments to both censor information sources and engage in propaganda, Doomberg might soon be my sole remaining trusted news source.
Until they censor us 😂
Did you break the 105k listens from ENB podcast with Stu? BTW this is actual journalism, SubStack is filling a big void for people interested in informing themselves. Good work as always.
Ha dunno. Stu will let us know next time we are on.
Maybe we will only be allowed to read Zelensky media?
Kyiv Independent
Ukraine still controls Bakmut etc
We actually read them too…
Completely agree with the first two paragraphs. The rest is trying to cut through the fog. I've given up on that.
To me what counts is the final result at the gas station for ordinary folks. That is higher gas prices almost everywhere. Globally. (Even with oil massively cheaper. Refineries run at 95-98%, riding the wave they won't see for ages again.)
In Russia there is gas rationing taking place. Check social media. Russian. So, whatever the true reason, something made the refineries or the logistics falter. And holidays in Crimea are no longer booked as in recent years. Same rational.
PS This is not arguing that Ukraine is winning or gaining ground. In my eyes both in Iran and Ukraine a prolonging conflict is affecting all of us and bringing us nearer to the brink of an all out war. Because the big powers are not able to arrive at a true victory. With conflicts they started, being convinced to get a quick win in a fortnight.
Agree with almost everything you wrote. Thanks!
What our dear overlords in Brussels want is that we can´t read all the propaganda but have to rely on the home made one only. What could possibly go wrong?!
Ignorance Is Strength
I mean, this quote is so old, we all know they all are lying:
"People never lie so much as after a hunt, during a war, or before an election."
(Otto von Bismarck)
Reminds me of Rick Rule whom I listened to yesterday. He said that it is so convenient, you don´t need to actually listen to it, it is sufficient to observe: that when the lips of a politician move you know for certain that the politician lies.
Doomberg appeared on Stu´s podcast (Energy News Beat) some days ago and gave a teaser regarding this article. He also expected some heavy backlash - controversial topic, controversial views.
To be honest: I am flabbergasted why anyone would find something massively controversial in this piece?! Doomberg even stated he can´t be sure if this drone attack (the fire element) was AI or not, probably not, but who knows?!
I end with another quote which nails it as well:
"I have certain rules I live by. My first rule: I don't believe anything the government tells me"
(George Carlin)
Regardless which government ...
So long and thanks for the fish :-)
Ha ha!
Thanks!
“Threats to freedom of speech, writing and action, though often trivial in isolation, are cumulative in their effect and, unless checked, lead to a general disrespect for the rights of the citizen” George Orwell. Seems like Europe has forgotten his warnings
Canada is now solidly on that path with its Bill C 22. Sadly for all Canadians, regardless of political stripe, I only see the restrictions getting tighter under the current government. Which is likely to be in power for a long time.
He certainly foresaw this
I wonder what he’d make of the BBC!
Ha
I couldn't find any mention in your article of Russia's diesel export suspension for July. Global diesel prices are pretty extended, to not take advantage of that market is perhaps compelling evidence that the Ukrainian attacks are a bit more than a "manageable nuisance"?
Yepp. You don't need the FT. Check - as rightly suggested by doomberg - Russian social meda. And go for the holidays on Crimea as well.
There WAS impact (from whatever). And the Russian are drone hunting Ukraine gas stations as well.
We certainly acknowledged impact in the article, no?
Positive. However, your verdict - to me - looks way too positive. On the basis of the proof you provided (way more so by my reading of Russian social media).
"Our verdict—subject to change should new inbound information arrive—is that the drone attacks on Russia’s refineries are a manageable nuisance for the Putin regime."
Since there are fears of new conscription waves in Russia (yes, in Ukraine as well).
But you are an experienced writer and always leave a backdoor open. That's fine. Still, it reminds me of politicians arguing their way out of something coming across as a definitive statement.
Let me define “manageable nuisance” for you as we intended it to be read: A real problem, unlikely to materially change the arc of the war, and certainly has no positive outcomes for NATO…
Ok, that's fine with me.
Internally it's going to become a headache for him. We'll see how it develops. I've read about him sending his yachts alredy to Turkey. But neither trust the source nor know the reason, if true. Speculation was he gets ready for whatever will happen in Moscow.
It came late so we decided to leave it for the comments. Let’s take it further. Who does that hurt more at the moment: Europe or Russia?
Exactly. See the article in this morning’s FT, July 10, about lines at gas stations in every part of Russia, with quotes. You could also speculate that sending in some drones, especially in a swarm of hundreds, with gasoline in the nose instead of explosives is a cheap way to do some damage when hitting a target that should burn nicely, and save the explosives for chasing down individual soldiers at the front.
Oh, and when they send missiles into Germany, what is your proposed response?
Fade all FT frenzies.
Whatever the situation on the ground in Russia/Ukraine, there is no doubt the European turn toward authoritarianism is the most disturbing outcome of that war. from my vantage point in the US, it appears that the premise that drove WWII (that's 2 not 11 🤣) has been completely lost as the current EU leadership sees their world view crumble around them and are doing all they can, which is still a lot, to maintain their power. Alas, Orwell knew what he was talking about.
He sure did.
"if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you", said German philosopher Nietzsche. It's true for Germany and the EU - gaze long enough into more authoritarian systems like China and Russia, and become like them.
That seems to be the way all of us follow right now. I don't know what sense it makes to always blame Europe (who are on a downward slope). Seen from this side of the Atlantic, the US is on a downward slope as well.
Feeding these feelings of contempt doesn't help anyone. Throughout history, this has often led to massive conflicts. Europe has centuries of experience with this. Perhaps that's why they behave like they do.
Stoertebekker wrote:
"Europe has centuries of experience with this. "
Exactly!
So, why don´t we learn from history?
Why are Brussels & Berlin etc. hell-bent on not opening a diplomatic channel, on escalating (4555th sanctions round), on punishing each & everyone who thinks in the opposite direction?
I have a funny feeling that our dear overlords require a conflict, a war to hide the true reasons why Europe is on the mentioned downward slope.
Folks, we learn from history. We had centuries of wars. The Montan Union (first stage of European Union) war founded to get us economically intertwined. And 80 years without war in Europe are a never before seen period.
You guys might have forgotten that France was the arch enemy of Germany. Gone.
You guys might have forgotten that Germay was divided. I lived through this. Gone.
You guys might have forgotten that we had COMECON. Gone.
And we still live in peace. That's an achievement. And if the price for this is Brussels. So be it. Yes, a high price. But still better than fleeing your property and starting all over again. As my grandparents had to do.
Let's be thankful for what we have and work for a better future. Together.
PS I speak Russian and do love the Russian people and culture. Still, crossing the border of a different country is a no-go. Especially, since exactly this country came into existence by your signature. Plus you guaranteeing for its safety in order to get it nuke-free.
absolutely fair question. There is nothing to win for Germany (and Europe)
Europe is much further down the road, and the feelings you are referring to are an attempt to stop the decline over here…
Yes, I agree.
However, checking youtube or commercial satellite pictures related to the Iran war, backdoors in all our operating software etc. - the US is no stranger to this as well.
But my main point is - WHY stoking these sentiments while we still need each other. There are other foes to fight against than countries you need for your military action.
Canada has just joined a German/Norwegian sub-consortium. Canada has just bought Australian radar equipment. There is a reason for that.
I can only speak for us: Our strongly anti-EU position is a decidedly pro-European citizen position. We would prefer our German friends not be on the receiving end of a Russian nuke, for example.
Honestly thankful for that. (And that I DO mean.)
Until now the idea of the American-European treaty was that the US shields us from Russian nukes. By stationing their troops/systems in Europe and following certain protocols.
That can be withdrawn. Definitely agree. And then it's our problem. (Although you and I agree, that Vlad Putin might not be interested in starting a war with Western Europe.)
However, pls. leave the change or non-change of the political system to European folks. Otherwise it might not end well. (Orban lost in part because Trumpian/Vancian support didn't go well here.)
I went through this in Eastern Germany. And only after we, the people, went into the streets, things had a happy end.
Do Europeans not comment on US politicians and their policies? I sure read an awful lot about Trump over the pond… 😂😂😂
as a German, I highly appreciate this attitude:)