37 Comments

DeFi threatens the banks and the USD. OF COURSE the SEC is going to come after "it".. But what are most DeFi protocols? Just math, code and extremely efficient execution and settlement. The best, safest, most valuable networks that provide consensus on these transactions are the "decentralized" part and have no jurisdictional exposure - they are the Internet! And until the global elites decide they have to turn THAT off, DeFi will continue to grow, naturally..

The US regulators are trying to put the genie back in the bottle. An intelligent, modern, advanced approach would be to embrace this new technology, allow the disruption and encourage the capital to flow into the USA. And be made a stronger and more robust economy because of this freedom and ability to adapt.

But NO! Must protect the entrenched money and power at all costs! Dinosaurs..

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Crypto? A better world? That is so hilarious. Maybe "a better world" if you are a human trafficker or something, but for normal people who need a loan to start a business, say, a pyramid scheme is the last place you'd want to look. Pure and simple.

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Maybe you should enlighten yourself a bit. Analyses has shown that 1/2% of crypto value annually is used in nefarious activity while more than 2 trillion dollars a year in USD does the same. The USD is the top dog...so maybe you should stop using it?

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LOL! You betcha, sir. Great analyses you got there. They must all be true, because a an anonymous stranger says so. Well, since crypto didn't work out as currency, and we should stop using money because of definitely scientific and empirical proof stated above, then maybe we should go back to using pookah shells instead.

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Keep holding them dollars my friend. Stay poor.

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BTC Closed Feb 21 at $38,251. It is currently ~$29,500. A loss of nearly 25%.

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I reiterate my comment. I bought bitcoin at 600 to see it drop to 250. I bought at 5000 to see it fall to 1500. I've been buying for 10 years not worrying about the drops because I understand the product and I know where its going. Its already made me a multi-millionaire. Come back in 2030 and tell me again how stupid I am.

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LOL okay!

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It used to be called cryptocurrency, but since it isn't currency, because it takes too long to execute. (The root of currency is current)

So now it's a financial instrument that is the Jerry Seinfeld of financial instruments. (About nothing)

It is literally less moored to any underlying value than a synthetic CDO, which is saying a lot.

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To my mind, a lot of the start-ups (including but not limited to FinTech/DeFi) are market disrupters, but in a pejorative sense of the term. They are doing regulation arbitrage, taking advantage of the (shrinking) space where the regulators have not yet stepped into. You might argue that the hotel and cab industries are corrupted, are full of monopolies, lack competition and progress etc. But what Uber and Airbnb were doing was nothing more than circumventing regulations and exporting all the negative externalities (security, landlords' rights, etc.) to the community.

DeFi is little different. It wants to play the game but doesn't want to pay the ante. Considering DeFi companies are dishonest about their dealings, I'd say they are worst than the gig-economies . If you hail a car using Uber, at least you get to have a clean and decent ride in a Tesla; but when all the dust has settled on DeFi, we'll find that all the promises are untruths. Think about how centralized the crypto mining operations and crypto custodian have become, and all the KYC they are about to (or already have) engaged in. So much for 'decentralization', 'privacy' and other tin foil hat conspiracy.

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"The land of the free."

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I have all these questions, like

Where will the SEC go to get Satoshi's address to serve process?

By mining crypto does one create a security?

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Free rein

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Would tether be considered defi? Because it’s obviously not kosher nor are many of the crypto currencies

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Tether is somewhat in DEFI due to the need for stablecoins, but USDC is much more popular in general in DEFI. Most of the current defi protocols were created in 2019+ and avoid using USDT because newer stablecoins like USDC came out and seemed more safe. And, there's other stables like Dai out now which is backed by crypto collateral and survived huge volatility event like the march 2020 flash crashes quite easily.

I personally never use USDT even if I keep 10-15% of my portfolio in stablecoins. In fact, for people bearish on USDT, you can borrow it for 1-5% APY against your crypto collateral on a defi platform like Aave or compound. Use the USDT in defi or just to buy more crypto. If USDT loses its peg or crashes to 0, your loan would be easily paid back and you can keep whatever you initially bought with your USDT loan :)

USDT going down would be more of a problem for centralized exchanges (especially asian ones) that use it as their base stablecoin pair (since they've been around 3+ years when USDT was the only option).

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Woah. It'll be crazy to see who they pull the trigger on first, and how many they go after how quickly.

What kind of popcorn futures does a chicken invest in?

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This is a brilliant and helpful piece. The big problem here is that the SEC wants to regulate by who they know and trust rather than by a clearly defined rule. This is why some will be prosecuted and others won’t for identical behaviours. The big established names like JP Morgan have a budget to engage in a continuous dialogue with the SEC. But the innovators here are little startups with no budget for an ongoing and potentially never-ending regulatory conversation. This is why clarity around the rules is so important. But clarity means loss of control regarding who is allowed to proceed and who will be punished for proceeding. In the end, governments won’t be able to control the who or the what without greater clarity. The solution is to announce the rules and accept that some of the new purveyors of digital finance won’t (shock horror) be the big banks who are old friends of the regulators. They will be new organisations with ever newer governance structures like Dao’s and Tokens. DeFi may not just be about creating new forms of money. DeFi may also be the death knell of the East India Company model. That would mean profits could be generated without issuing shares. That means no more need for a stock market. That means maybe no need for the SEC. This fight between the SEC and DeFi is existential for both sides.

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Huge implications for ETH should also be mentioned since most DeFi operates on that network. That's an awful lot of "decentralization" relying on the ETH foundation.

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Excellent analysis; don't disagree with any of it.

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"Totally agree doesn't mean what you think it does" lol

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One token has gone through the SEC's registration processes, the Stacks token (STX). They went the full IPO route with an S-1 et al. Once they received their funds, they moved to deregister it. They needed to do that so the tokens could be traded without going through a broker. Now it trades like any other token.

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Clever lawyers.

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It doesn't necessarily end DeFi *everywhere* though does it? I mean, it could be a bloodbath in the USA and a total mess, but DeFi could still function in Europe and parts of Asia.

Although the "De" part of DeFi is questionable in many cases, to some extent some of these protocols are fairly robust.

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Yes it would really only limit Americans and move all USA defi firms offshore. Already in the past 6 months this has been happening. The bigger defi protocols based in USA have been very very slow to update this year on a lot of great upgrades most likely due to SEC fear. It's really too bad as some great crypto/defi teams in USA but all good projects have already been forked by competitors trying to beat the established players.

Many defi protocols will simply move towards blocking Americans by IP address to avoid legal issues from USA and the show goes on for the rest of the world. Definitely sucks for the space as it will slow down progress. More importantly its just worsefor american crypto users who constantly get shafted in the last year in defi and forced to pass on the closest thing to "free money" in crypto. For example DYDX had done an "airdrop" that gave 40k + USD to anyone who used their protocol and despite being a USA team they did not give anything to americans to avoid legal issue. A nice case of the SEC protecting the "little guy" from making any easy money.

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My 12-yr-old and friends know how to install a VPN app on their phones, to bypass the school's firewall and hide their IP addresses. (And I didn't teach them this!)

The SEC (etc) are just "fighting the last war" and will certainly lose this one. There will be blood along the way, yes. But just like (the government trying to control) online gambling, they can't stop DeFi.

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“DeFi stands for decentralized finance, and it is the crypto world’s attempt to radically transform the entire financial system. It is truly innovative, dynamic, and filled with promise for a better world.”

That’s adorable.

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The same claim was made for slavery: 'promise of a better world.'

Bertrand Russell: “The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.”

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You're off brand, praising crypto. Where's the Doom my man?

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Man I love the fact that Matt Stoller reads this substack.

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How could i not? It's so fun.

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Such interesting ecosystems doth the internet construct.

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How can these DeFi platforms offer yield of 10% on stablecoin such as USDT ?!

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There's many reasons. The most common way to get 10% is borrowing your USDT (or other stable coins like USDC or crypto like wbtc,eth.. ) is to use for another defi application or leverage. ~10% yield is fairly easy to find in DEFI and can use 1+ year old established protocols that have been very safe. This podcast explains it well https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJ6MQsjOS0I&t=6s

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"But…doesn’t that effectively end DeFi as we know it?"

It absolutely ends a good part of it. And when the FOMO, "I buy at $X and sell at $10X ends", the rest of it is over.

And yes, I get all of the technology and "cool stuff" about it...that has nothing with Joe Retail looking to get sell to the next sucker.

I also want to point out that the selective enforcement is a very real weapon, and will certainly be used here.

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There's way more to defi than just "buy x to make 10x". That's just crypto investing (or any market) where people are hoping to make big profits. Defi is more about unlocking a lot of options with money that was idle in your wallet. Instead of holding BTC or ETH in your wallet hoping it goes up, you can loan it to people though smart contracts and get a yield (to give a basic example on the most common use).

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Sure, and who makes money on that now? Banks. Who lobby dot gov. I'm not trying to argue, I am trying to illustrate a point about who you are disrupting here.

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I get your point. I would add that ETH+ DEFI is definitely more of a threat to banks in this regard since you can replace banks not only on holding but finding "safe" ways to loan idle assets and make interest payments on it.

BTC is not so much a treat, as its entirely possible many people (especially institutions) would like to use banks as a custodial solution to hold their BTC (similar to how they used to hold Gold).

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