@doomberg I have a question re: the name plate electricity produced by wind farms. As an intermittent source of electricity the production of electricity is variable. How is the nameplate capacity calculated? Is it expressed as the highest value capable rather than its real world value in terms of generation.
The reason for the question is if I am China and I am say over enthusiastically reporting my energy transformation to a willing audience in the West, if I state the nameplate capacity of wind farms I can over report there power generation in real life. This would be a statistical way of underreporting coal fired electricity production. Just curious 🧐
I live in Alberta, Canada. Our recently elected Premier Danielle Smith is smart strategic politician. She was radio talk show host for 4 (?) years before becoming Premier, and solar and wind electricity were regular subjects on her show. She knows the energy file, although I never heard her use the brilliant platitudes vs physics expression. She would have if she subscribed to Doomberg. Anyway.......she recently imposed a 6 month moratorium on future wind projects. Much invective was directed her way from the usual suspects, including the opposition NDP, but thus far she has held her ground. She is media savvy, she can see that the political climate for wind and solar is changing rapidly. Let's hope the 6 month moratorium becomes permanent in the great province of Alberta.
I‘ve recently met an engineer attending a geotechnical engineering congress in Germany. Rumor said some people are considering city planning with wind turbine blades. Possible applications might be noise barriers. Burying seems to be going out of fashion.
“The Biden administration is still insisting that there will be 30 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity installed between now and 2030, actively pretending that the real world simply does not exist.” If I may offer an edit starting with actively, “actively murdering innocent whales” 😭🐳😭
Great piece, thanks! This one made me relive the everyday trauma of "Energiewende":
"the hard realities of life must eventually be confronted, and no amount of pompous speech, deceptive statistics, or outright fabrications can overcome the laws of physics. It might take many years, involve billions in misallocated money, and cause significant social and political upheaval, but one simply cannot wish away the fundamental constraints of the universe. The global (my read: german) energy strategy is no exception."
Doomie. I was born and raised in Germany and while I‘m no journalist or writer myself, I believe this piece would be the perfect fit for the German public considering our great policies when it comes to energy over the last couple of years. Have you considered translating your pieces and making this one public?
Since I am a farmer, aged 85, I think I understand and comprehend the full benefit and necessity of the United States petroleum industry. As a young boy I watched just how hard my parents had to "slave" just to scratch out their hand to mouth living. Then WWII ended and they were able to buy tractors and machinery, they increased the acreage they farmed from 30 acres to 2500. I still remember the day when our first Farmall H tractor was delivered and Dad sold our six work horse teams. I am the last person to which you want to complain about petroleum.
Furthermore, in 1995 the ranch I live on, natural gas was discovered and my home is surrounded by 1000s of operating natural gas wells, complete with gas pipelines and compressor plants. However, our gas wells are slowly depleting and with the anti/ignorant US and State government legislation it will only be a few more years and this valuable resource will be history. By the way, I believe the quality of breathable air on my deck is some of the best in the world.
LCOE is garbage. Anyone (👋) that’s spent time procuring equipment and labor, and in a financial model, knows reported LCOEs never reflected reality in the Americas.
One interesting result of inflation in renewables has been the rapid rise in prices under PPAs. This is primarily driven by investors who can no longer justify waiting 25 years to get their money back before earning a return. Consumers and businesses will see higher electric prices as a result. Politicians will inevitably blame everything other than their uneconomic adoption of solar and wind for these problems.
May the Gods of Physics and the Economy have mercy on our folly!
Quite the discover that LCOE is a fraud. That's quoted until the cows come home by the wind industry (do we want them to come home with all that methane? Another day, another day).
It is true that there are not enough critical raw materials for all proposed large scale wind farms to have battery storage. But that does not mean that it should not be required as a condition of permitting. Large scale wind farms cause burdensome costs and instabilities on any grid. The developers should be required to offset those costs.
https://www.decouplemedia.org/podcast/episode/23ff351b/us-offshore-wind-dead-in-the-water
@doomberg I have a question re: the name plate electricity produced by wind farms. As an intermittent source of electricity the production of electricity is variable. How is the nameplate capacity calculated? Is it expressed as the highest value capable rather than its real world value in terms of generation.
The reason for the question is if I am China and I am say over enthusiastically reporting my energy transformation to a willing audience in the West, if I state the nameplate capacity of wind farms I can over report there power generation in real life. This would be a statistical way of underreporting coal fired electricity production. Just curious 🧐
I live in Alberta, Canada. Our recently elected Premier Danielle Smith is smart strategic politician. She was radio talk show host for 4 (?) years before becoming Premier, and solar and wind electricity were regular subjects on her show. She knows the energy file, although I never heard her use the brilliant platitudes vs physics expression. She would have if she subscribed to Doomberg. Anyway.......she recently imposed a 6 month moratorium on future wind projects. Much invective was directed her way from the usual suspects, including the opposition NDP, but thus far she has held her ground. She is media savvy, she can see that the political climate for wind and solar is changing rapidly. Let's hope the 6 month moratorium becomes permanent in the great province of Alberta.
I‘ve recently met an engineer attending a geotechnical engineering congress in Germany. Rumor said some people are considering city planning with wind turbine blades. Possible applications might be noise barriers. Burying seems to be going out of fashion.
“The Biden administration is still insisting that there will be 30 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity installed between now and 2030, actively pretending that the real world simply does not exist.” If I may offer an edit starting with actively, “actively murdering innocent whales” 😭🐳😭
Great piece, thanks! This one made me relive the everyday trauma of "Energiewende":
"the hard realities of life must eventually be confronted, and no amount of pompous speech, deceptive statistics, or outright fabrications can overcome the laws of physics. It might take many years, involve billions in misallocated money, and cause significant social and political upheaval, but one simply cannot wish away the fundamental constraints of the universe. The global (my read: german) energy strategy is no exception."
Doomie. I was born and raised in Germany and while I‘m no journalist or writer myself, I believe this piece would be the perfect fit for the German public considering our great policies when it comes to energy over the last couple of years. Have you considered translating your pieces and making this one public?
Cheers,
Seb
Since I am a farmer, aged 85, I think I understand and comprehend the full benefit and necessity of the United States petroleum industry. As a young boy I watched just how hard my parents had to "slave" just to scratch out their hand to mouth living. Then WWII ended and they were able to buy tractors and machinery, they increased the acreage they farmed from 30 acres to 2500. I still remember the day when our first Farmall H tractor was delivered and Dad sold our six work horse teams. I am the last person to which you want to complain about petroleum.
Furthermore, in 1995 the ranch I live on, natural gas was discovered and my home is surrounded by 1000s of operating natural gas wells, complete with gas pipelines and compressor plants. However, our gas wells are slowly depleting and with the anti/ignorant US and State government legislation it will only be a few more years and this valuable resource will be history. By the way, I believe the quality of breathable air on my deck is some of the best in the world.
Fabulous read if one of life’s greatest grifts.
I'll be happy to put my last 120 years of hydrocarbon progress up against your future 120 years of electric progress.
LCOE is garbage. Anyone (👋) that’s spent time procuring equipment and labor, and in a financial model, knows reported LCOEs never reflected reality in the Americas.
One interesting result of inflation in renewables has been the rapid rise in prices under PPAs. This is primarily driven by investors who can no longer justify waiting 25 years to get their money back before earning a return. Consumers and businesses will see higher electric prices as a result. Politicians will inevitably blame everything other than their uneconomic adoption of solar and wind for these problems.
May the Gods of Physics and the Economy have mercy on our folly!
Could you explain how the LCOE is calculated?
Don Quixote, what would you say? Are we tilting at windmills just like you?
Quite the discover that LCOE is a fraud. That's quoted until the cows come home by the wind industry (do we want them to come home with all that methane? Another day, another day).
Very informative piece.
Right on Doomy.
I've been reading. Also been chilling - watching uranium and, 🤞🏼, the next commodity wave.
It is true that there are not enough critical raw materials for all proposed large scale wind farms to have battery storage. But that does not mean that it should not be required as a condition of permitting. Large scale wind farms cause burdensome costs and instabilities on any grid. The developers should be required to offset those costs.