In consumption driven economies you need to have disposable income from living wages, or leverage deteriorating wages to consume from via credit. The standard of living you can then afford depends on competitive markets, rather than crony capitalism with rigged markets and rent-seeking. Canadian medicare, for all its faults, is more affordable than a US system under Big Pharma/Insurance. Employers and employees pay through contributions. So the Big 3 aren't riding it, just taking advantage of a lower cost structure. A bit of a doom-loop: companies become more competitive by squeezing wages, but then consumption drops. To retain profitability income then has to be enhanced by profiteering measures (expensive trucks/SUVs that die in 10 years and are too costly to repair off warranty, shrinkflation, quality lowering, etc) - lowering purchasing power, feeding the loop. Lots of fat to trim in the system, but it'll be a Hella'f a fight.
As I read this article, the thought that kept going through my mind was: Why? Why are supply chains still a problem? Supply chain resiliency has been a topic since before the turn of the millennium, 25 years ago. The need to establish supply chains that can adapt to even black swan events is a fiduciary duty of all corporate officers. The Covid19 shut down of everything was understandable as something no amount of planning could account for, but the failures in the supply chains when things started opening up showed they were much more fragile than they should be. In my opinion, the fiduciary duty was broadly breached. The fact that Trump has been telegraphing broad tariffs for well over a year, yet it looks like little was done to prepare. Our corporate leaders are failing.
I just see in many ways, from supply chains to RTO to now trying to claw back employee salary increases in the face of a demographic table-flip that rather than adapt to reality, our corporate leaders want to go back to Status Quo Ante, even if it means playing See no Evil, Hear no Evil, Speak no Evil. A lot of them are going to soon find that they are are going to win the uncoveted Lou Gertsner Award for Paleolithic Management.
Help me square this circle- charge times are one thing, but the next limiting factor is the ability for the infrastructure to supply the electrons on that rate, right? My background is water engineering, so the analogy for me is you can have a water tank that can fill at 1000 gallons per minute, but unless you have a pump and the pipe system to support that, it’s effectively a nice talking point. Am I missing something?
Mostly good. I believe one must remember that not any NATION-GREAT POWER or any POWERFULL economy "NATION" has survived great prosperity, history is full of the rise and decline. One can detail many reasons, but the over-powering cause is; when great prosperity is achieved "the people" stop caring HOW and WHY, become even more greedy with their hands out. For sure the U.S.A., has become very prosperous, when welfare and homeless walk around with$1000, cell telephones, you can mark the level of unwise sweeping our COUNTRY. For President Trump, to have a go is far above any other person from FDR, until today, all others told us how they would "DO IT" and that was the end. I wish President Trump, well with any action he tries and know he will make several adjustments along the way. GOD BLESS HIM FOR TRYING.
Thanks for the essay, Doomy. I have heard so many arguments pro and con tariffs that I am worn out. I think I'll just say "HI!" and step aside to see what everyone else has to say. I do know that the back and forth on tariffs by everyone, including Trump, is driving Wall Street crazy along with many country's leadership. That might be on purpose. 🙄
Are we being misdirected or even blinded by all this discussion of trade and manufacture? This could well be the start of a consumption tax to reduce or eliminate income taxes. It was imposed over the largest tax base possible - trade between the US and Mexico and Canada - thus assuring largest tax revenue potential. Taxing foreign sellers is politically expedient and appeals to both parties. Plus, Trump gets to do it his way without Congressional approval or oversight. Just like the skating rink.
Another thought…Tesla has developed factories and supply chains in the US which will not be as affected as traditional car makers by the tariffs. So there are models for the traditional car makers to follow, and frankly they should have been following. It’s tiresome to think the great innovations which have driven value in the last 30 years are simply to use cheap labor in foreign countries, rather than real innovation like the giga factory.
Such phrases stand the test of time for a reason. Certainly the stock market seems a bit edgy these days with what's transpiring. Maybe I should turn on CNBC and watch Dan Ives certify this is a "generational buying opportunity"....Not that he's ever used that line before.
Those tariffs are like the Power slap games, which two guys/gals slap each other and see who gets a concussion first. Except tariff is even more asinine than a game of Power Slap — basically one slaps oneself and hope to give your adversary a concussion.
Trump and his ministers are mindful of Britain's fate. Once workshop of the world, they adopted free trade, lost their factories, financialized, and became the odd ruin they are today. How did Britain go from Diamond Jubilee to Suez to Starmer? It's a tale to be told, but within that tale is the story of Britain's deindustrialization, no better signified than the closure of its last thermal power plant.
I'm not certain of free trade was the prime cause of Britain's deindustrialization. Trump and his team are betting that it was. I'm worried like many about the coming tariffs and some of his other measures, not the least being the proposed port fees on Chinese ships. Some very important decisions are going to be made in a few months by one man; and while I applaud the goal I'm doubtful of the means. Great care should be taken.
Little eyebrow raiser at the end of the article when it seems Doomie has let the claim of 1000kw (1 megawatt) speeds to recharge an EV as being somewhat achievable?? I don’t understand all the physics and chemistry and electrical engineering behind such claims, but I do know that it’s extremely unlikely to ever happen in reality, or anywhere other than a totally contained, controlled environment. The infrastructure required to deliver that amount of electrical power is mind boggling. And the inherent danger to the everyday Joe Sixpack users performing such a feat is probably underestimated. Not to mention, a five minute charge is still about 100-150% longer than an average car fuel tank from empty to full, and I’m being generous to the EV charger in that statement. And 470km claimed, is perhaps 75% of what an average equivalent aged ICE will deliver in fuel economy? I’d love to see a deeper dive into the claims from BYD etc.
Agree, BYD is not a scam company. But claiming that they will roll out 1mw chargers and actually doing so is quite an interesting thing . The cost of the chargers themselves would be astronomical. And to find a grid that supplies 1mw to a charging station (not to mention thousands throughout the country) is going to be a challenge. Then there is the cost that an electricity company is going to charge to deliver 1mw!!! And even if you could overcome those hurdles, what kind of battery degradation are owners going to see when they are trying to “flash charge” their EV with 1mw? Physics and economics make the claims laughable. I’d love to see Doomie genuinely put this one through his “technology matrix” system 🤣
My experience as an urban planner in both public (municipalities) and private (consultancies) settings, as well as a consumer of American, European and Asian vehicles is that Americans are short-termers, marketeers or campaigners, rather than interested in governance, and addicted to transactional, rather than deeper relationships.
My wife, who was a Finnish architect, once remarked to me how lacking in durability the American manufacturing products are: “they would never last one season in our climate!” I had the same experience with America-made trucks are cars, so I bought several European vehicles (BMW, Audi, Volvo): maintenance was too damn expensive! I have since owned Japanese and Korean vehicles, and been much more satisfied.
Americans morph their economic discontents into bloviating politicians, and change hirses when nothing changes. We spend too little time being vigilant citizens, and too much time complaining about our own reluctance to mind the store while our “public servants” loot it! I see our immaturities as an invitation to shoddy manufacturing, fraud and authoritarianism!
Trump said, that for every one new regulation 10 must go. I loved what he did in the first six weeks and I highly respect that, because he did more in these 6 weeks than many presidents before him. Now his opponents have adopted and developed counter strategies and yet I'm sure he's not sitting in Mar-a-Lago and does nothing. Give time some time, I'm still optimistic :)
30,000 part cars and Levi jeans traversing the Pacific 50 times before final sewing are the hallmarks of the peak absurdity of globalization, not a hard and fast rule requirement to make cars and jeans.
This was all coming to an end regardless of a bull called Trump smashing through the proverbial China shop.
In consumption driven economies you need to have disposable income from living wages, or leverage deteriorating wages to consume from via credit. The standard of living you can then afford depends on competitive markets, rather than crony capitalism with rigged markets and rent-seeking. Canadian medicare, for all its faults, is more affordable than a US system under Big Pharma/Insurance. Employers and employees pay through contributions. So the Big 3 aren't riding it, just taking advantage of a lower cost structure. A bit of a doom-loop: companies become more competitive by squeezing wages, but then consumption drops. To retain profitability income then has to be enhanced by profiteering measures (expensive trucks/SUVs that die in 10 years and are too costly to repair off warranty, shrinkflation, quality lowering, etc) - lowering purchasing power, feeding the loop. Lots of fat to trim in the system, but it'll be a Hella'f a fight.
As I read this article, the thought that kept going through my mind was: Why? Why are supply chains still a problem? Supply chain resiliency has been a topic since before the turn of the millennium, 25 years ago. The need to establish supply chains that can adapt to even black swan events is a fiduciary duty of all corporate officers. The Covid19 shut down of everything was understandable as something no amount of planning could account for, but the failures in the supply chains when things started opening up showed they were much more fragile than they should be. In my opinion, the fiduciary duty was broadly breached. The fact that Trump has been telegraphing broad tariffs for well over a year, yet it looks like little was done to prepare. Our corporate leaders are failing.
I just see in many ways, from supply chains to RTO to now trying to claw back employee salary increases in the face of a demographic table-flip that rather than adapt to reality, our corporate leaders want to go back to Status Quo Ante, even if it means playing See no Evil, Hear no Evil, Speak no Evil. A lot of them are going to soon find that they are are going to win the uncoveted Lou Gertsner Award for Paleolithic Management.
Help me square this circle- charge times are one thing, but the next limiting factor is the ability for the infrastructure to supply the electrons on that rate, right? My background is water engineering, so the analogy for me is you can have a water tank that can fill at 1000 gallons per minute, but unless you have a pump and the pipe system to support that, it’s effectively a nice talking point. Am I missing something?
Mostly good. I believe one must remember that not any NATION-GREAT POWER or any POWERFULL economy "NATION" has survived great prosperity, history is full of the rise and decline. One can detail many reasons, but the over-powering cause is; when great prosperity is achieved "the people" stop caring HOW and WHY, become even more greedy with their hands out. For sure the U.S.A., has become very prosperous, when welfare and homeless walk around with$1000, cell telephones, you can mark the level of unwise sweeping our COUNTRY. For President Trump, to have a go is far above any other person from FDR, until today, all others told us how they would "DO IT" and that was the end. I wish President Trump, well with any action he tries and know he will make several adjustments along the way. GOD BLESS HIM FOR TRYING.
RALPH W.
Thanks for the essay, Doomy. I have heard so many arguments pro and con tariffs that I am worn out. I think I'll just say "HI!" and step aside to see what everyone else has to say. I do know that the back and forth on tariffs by everyone, including Trump, is driving Wall Street crazy along with many country's leadership. That might be on purpose. 🙄
Are we being misdirected or even blinded by all this discussion of trade and manufacture? This could well be the start of a consumption tax to reduce or eliminate income taxes. It was imposed over the largest tax base possible - trade between the US and Mexico and Canada - thus assuring largest tax revenue potential. Taxing foreign sellers is politically expedient and appeals to both parties. Plus, Trump gets to do it his way without Congressional approval or oversight. Just like the skating rink.
Another thought…Tesla has developed factories and supply chains in the US which will not be as affected as traditional car makers by the tariffs. So there are models for the traditional car makers to follow, and frankly they should have been following. It’s tiresome to think the great innovations which have driven value in the last 30 years are simply to use cheap labor in foreign countries, rather than real innovation like the giga factory.
As we mentioned in the piece, they are still exposed to China retaliations though
The law of unintended consequences
Nothing stands in isolation
Be careful what you wish for
Such phrases stand the test of time for a reason. Certainly the stock market seems a bit edgy these days with what's transpiring. Maybe I should turn on CNBC and watch Dan Ives certify this is a "generational buying opportunity"....Not that he's ever used that line before.
Those tariffs are like the Power slap games, which two guys/gals slap each other and see who gets a concussion first. Except tariff is even more asinine than a game of Power Slap — basically one slaps oneself and hope to give your adversary a concussion.
The intent is good. The tactics are a little wanting.
Good article, just nit pick here why call Muhammed Ali -->Cassius Clay a name he was very outspoken about that he doesn't want to be called by?
We were referring to the time when he first arrived (and the electricity he generated), which was his name then. Tyson's arrival was unique.
Trump and his ministers are mindful of Britain's fate. Once workshop of the world, they adopted free trade, lost their factories, financialized, and became the odd ruin they are today. How did Britain go from Diamond Jubilee to Suez to Starmer? It's a tale to be told, but within that tale is the story of Britain's deindustrialization, no better signified than the closure of its last thermal power plant.
I'm not certain of free trade was the prime cause of Britain's deindustrialization. Trump and his team are betting that it was. I'm worried like many about the coming tariffs and some of his other measures, not the least being the proposed port fees on Chinese ships. Some very important decisions are going to be made in a few months by one man; and while I applaud the goal I'm doubtful of the means. Great care should be taken.
It is a very historic and dangerous time
Little eyebrow raiser at the end of the article when it seems Doomie has let the claim of 1000kw (1 megawatt) speeds to recharge an EV as being somewhat achievable?? I don’t understand all the physics and chemistry and electrical engineering behind such claims, but I do know that it’s extremely unlikely to ever happen in reality, or anywhere other than a totally contained, controlled environment. The infrastructure required to deliver that amount of electrical power is mind boggling. And the inherent danger to the everyday Joe Sixpack users performing such a feat is probably underestimated. Not to mention, a five minute charge is still about 100-150% longer than an average car fuel tank from empty to full, and I’m being generous to the EV charger in that statement. And 470km claimed, is perhaps 75% of what an average equivalent aged ICE will deliver in fuel economy? I’d love to see a deeper dive into the claims from BYD etc.
If BYD is claiming to be rolling it out, we have little reason to doubt them. This isn't a fly-by-night scam company.
Agree, BYD is not a scam company. But claiming that they will roll out 1mw chargers and actually doing so is quite an interesting thing . The cost of the chargers themselves would be astronomical. And to find a grid that supplies 1mw to a charging station (not to mention thousands throughout the country) is going to be a challenge. Then there is the cost that an electricity company is going to charge to deliver 1mw!!! And even if you could overcome those hurdles, what kind of battery degradation are owners going to see when they are trying to “flash charge” their EV with 1mw? Physics and economics make the claims laughable. I’d love to see Doomie genuinely put this one through his “technology matrix” system 🤣
Burn that coal for the electric charge.
Maybe they were comparing to E85 on range.
'Where's Doombird' - now my favourite passtime... the Hulk Hogan one is a classic :)
Gotta say, that chart of light vehicle sales is one hell of an economic indicator - if you notice the lack of recovery since 2008...
Yes. Also, cars are simply lasting longer.
My experience as an urban planner in both public (municipalities) and private (consultancies) settings, as well as a consumer of American, European and Asian vehicles is that Americans are short-termers, marketeers or campaigners, rather than interested in governance, and addicted to transactional, rather than deeper relationships.
My wife, who was a Finnish architect, once remarked to me how lacking in durability the American manufacturing products are: “they would never last one season in our climate!” I had the same experience with America-made trucks are cars, so I bought several European vehicles (BMW, Audi, Volvo): maintenance was too damn expensive! I have since owned Japanese and Korean vehicles, and been much more satisfied.
Americans morph their economic discontents into bloviating politicians, and change hirses when nothing changes. We spend too little time being vigilant citizens, and too much time complaining about our own reluctance to mind the store while our “public servants” loot it! I see our immaturities as an invitation to shoddy manufacturing, fraud and authoritarianism!
Trump said, that for every one new regulation 10 must go. I loved what he did in the first six weeks and I highly respect that, because he did more in these 6 weeks than many presidents before him. Now his opponents have adopted and developed counter strategies and yet I'm sure he's not sitting in Mar-a-Lago and does nothing. Give time some time, I'm still optimistic :)
On tariffs, his tactics have been wanting.
30,000 part cars and Levi jeans traversing the Pacific 50 times before final sewing are the hallmarks of the peak absurdity of globalization, not a hard and fast rule requirement to make cars and jeans.
This was all coming to an end regardless of a bull called Trump smashing through the proverbial China shop.