Hi Doomy. Good analysis as always. Small suggestion. When displaying inventory graph have you considered the SEAG function on your BB terminal? This will make your chart match your word analysis and allow readers to more accurately visualize the seasonal trends you are discussing.
Whether you believe the victory of the raid went to the Ukrainians or the Russians, the idea of 800 special forces waiting in enemy territory in a confined space leads one to imagine the sacrifices involved to pull this off. Everyone has to (1) crawl or frog walk for 15 kilometers, (2) deal with any crazies (with loaded weapons) that succumb to panic attacks from claustrophobia in the dark, (3) plan for food eaten over four days in miserable conditions, (4) at last (and probably the worst ) deal with the ramifications of every soldier having a bowel movement at least once every two days (if not more due to the circumstances). 🫢🤢 Maybe they used a bucket brigade and left a string of "relief buckets" in the rear of the column that will be found by archeologists 400 years from now.
This isn't a first for the Russians who fought in the sewers of Stalingrad in WW2. In the early 1990s, I read two or three historical books on the "Rattenkrieg" (war of the rats). The movie, "Enemy at the Gates" does not even come close to representing the foul and disgusting living and battle environment. Maybe it is now included in Russian Basic Training for new recruits - who knows?
I have given up on trying to forecast what the leaders in the EU will be doing about their energy situation. Lately, all I have heard is the EU politicians beating their chests and how they are going to open an extra large can of "Whoop Ass" on Russia after Trump's possible withdrawal from NATO. That'll be the day. 🙄
I believe when push comes to shove, the EU will find itself once again lining up to make all the wrong decisions regarding energy. I believe 2025 will be the year for natural gas and LNG. That is where I am placing my money (not investment advice). I guess we'll see. 🫣
Rigs targeting natural gas in the prolific Marcellus and Haynesville shale plays are not returning to drilling as they have in years past, this is going to shape into an interesting back half 2025. Notice Harold Hamm’s company signed an exploration agreement to explore Turkey for natural gas.
Great read. The Russians using a defunct pipeline to insert almost a battalion into Ukraine is a perfect metaphor for the EU's current military fallacy, in inverse. Great way to lead into the article. As a former member of the Big Green Machine, it occurs to me that being among the soldiers at the rearmost of that Russian pipe crawl were likely re-enacting Andy DuFresne's septic slog to freedom.
One of my homes back in Houston had a large lot and backyard. That seemed unusual until I saw in the previous owner's disclosure that a sizable natural gas pipeline ran through the backyard about 20 feet from the pool. 😲 That gave me pause, until I decided I stood a better chance of dying on Houston's freeways than going up in a mushroom cloud of an exploding pipeline. Lived there for 15 years and never gave it another thought.
"Will they be enough to help Europe avoid another emergency? What milestones should investors watch for as early warning indicators? Let’s head to Brussels for a balanced assessment of the situation." Heading to Brussels for a balanced assessment! You're so funny!
I'm not sure what's worse, just that all this is bad enough. Something will turn. But which way? Some parts improve from this perspective or that. But, oh my ... What a mess!
I think EU will find the ambition to Re-Shore and build AI Dominance in the US will be a call on US natural gas. They will continue to lurch from one energy crisis to another and now have to pivot to spend a Trillion dollars on defense? Math doesn’t work. Didn’t have to be this way even taking into account the war.
Who would benefit most from sabotage of Blue Stream and Turkstream? Who would be the biggest losers? Is there a model scenario where Putin would just decrease flows through those? Where does Turkey fit in all this?
Everyone has a mortgage to pay, I guess that goes for the green chicken too.
Hi Doomy. Good analysis as always. Small suggestion. When displaying inventory graph have you considered the SEAG function on your BB terminal? This will make your chart match your word analysis and allow readers to more accurately visualize the seasonal trends you are discussing.
Whether you believe the victory of the raid went to the Ukrainians or the Russians, the idea of 800 special forces waiting in enemy territory in a confined space leads one to imagine the sacrifices involved to pull this off. Everyone has to (1) crawl or frog walk for 15 kilometers, (2) deal with any crazies (with loaded weapons) that succumb to panic attacks from claustrophobia in the dark, (3) plan for food eaten over four days in miserable conditions, (4) at last (and probably the worst ) deal with the ramifications of every soldier having a bowel movement at least once every two days (if not more due to the circumstances). 🫢🤢 Maybe they used a bucket brigade and left a string of "relief buckets" in the rear of the column that will be found by archeologists 400 years from now.
This isn't a first for the Russians who fought in the sewers of Stalingrad in WW2. In the early 1990s, I read two or three historical books on the "Rattenkrieg" (war of the rats). The movie, "Enemy at the Gates" does not even come close to representing the foul and disgusting living and battle environment. Maybe it is now included in Russian Basic Training for new recruits - who knows?
I have given up on trying to forecast what the leaders in the EU will be doing about their energy situation. Lately, all I have heard is the EU politicians beating their chests and how they are going to open an extra large can of "Whoop Ass" on Russia after Trump's possible withdrawal from NATO. That'll be the day. 🙄
You can get yours here --> https://tinyurl.com/32mk8u6p .
I believe when push comes to shove, the EU will find itself once again lining up to make all the wrong decisions regarding energy. I believe 2025 will be the year for natural gas and LNG. That is where I am placing my money (not investment advice). I guess we'll see. 🫣
Rigs targeting natural gas in the prolific Marcellus and Haynesville shale plays are not returning to drilling as they have in years past, this is going to shape into an interesting back half 2025. Notice Harold Hamm’s company signed an exploration agreement to explore Turkey for natural gas.
Maybe keep an eye on Algeria: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/france-algeria-rocked-most-serious-diplomatic-crisis-end-colonial-rule
Watching it closely
Great read. The Russians using a defunct pipeline to insert almost a battalion into Ukraine is a perfect metaphor for the EU's current military fallacy, in inverse. Great way to lead into the article. As a former member of the Big Green Machine, it occurs to me that being among the soldiers at the rearmost of that Russian pipe crawl were likely re-enacting Andy DuFresne's septic slog to freedom.
🤣
You really earned your name with this one, Doomberg. Now I'll think about blown up energy pipelines when I should be sleeping.
If you were funded by the Sleepytime THC Gummy Company, you'd disclose that to us, right?
One of my homes back in Houston had a large lot and backyard. That seemed unusual until I saw in the previous owner's disclosure that a sizable natural gas pipeline ran through the backyard about 20 feet from the pool. 😲 That gave me pause, until I decided I stood a better chance of dying on Houston's freeways than going up in a mushroom cloud of an exploding pipeline. Lived there for 15 years and never gave it another thought.
We are 100% funded by our subscribers ;)
Green Chicken, et. alia.,
"Will they be enough to help Europe avoid another emergency? What milestones should investors watch for as early warning indicators? Let’s head to Brussels for a balanced assessment of the situation." Heading to Brussels for a balanced assessment! You're so funny!
;)
I'm not sure what's worse, just that all this is bad enough. Something will turn. But which way? Some parts improve from this perspective or that. But, oh my ... What a mess!
I think EU will find the ambition to Re-Shore and build AI Dominance in the US will be a call on US natural gas. They will continue to lurch from one energy crisis to another and now have to pivot to spend a Trillion dollars on defense? Math doesn’t work. Didn’t have to be this way even taking into account the war.
Great post, Doom.
Who would benefit most from sabotage of Blue Stream and Turkstream? Who would be the biggest losers? Is there a model scenario where Putin would just decrease flows through those? Where does Turkey fit in all this?
Winners: US and Qatar. Losers: Hungary, Slovakia, Turkey, and the rest of Europe.
Qatar won’t sabotage those lines. Nor will Turkey. Hmmm.
LOL!
Bans on new gas appliances in New York and California should even out the situation 👍
Craziness. People will continue to vote with their feet.
Lol
USA and EU
Guess which is each
https://youtube.com/shorts/bBR7mNuNbaY?si=2HNwivagmCz4lME9
Lol
USA is correct to dump Europe as they are hopeless
Sell them expensive energy if they are willing to buy it
Europe is subject to periodic manias and EU leadership are Bolsheviks
USSR version 2 but now it’s in Western Europe
Sell them not only energy but expensive armaments as well.
Would love to see a deep dive on the “controversial” Venture Global.
Ask and ye shall receive https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/nothing-ventured
Less expensive than a newspaper and more informative! Doomberg for the win! 🥇
Thanks!