Highlights the contrary impact of Biden’s attempt to reduce LNG earlier. Jan 2024 news: "Business groups from the U.S., Europe and Japan urged President Biden to reverse his administration's pause on new LNG export permits"
“Consistent with our longstanding approach to energy markets, history has shown it is far more lucrative to fade such emergencies near their peak than to gamble on the timing of their occurrence.” Good advice that also works if “burst asset bubbles” is swapped for “emergencies”.
I think the market will allow Europe to make it thru the winter. Our friends across the pond may be significantly poorer, but they will have gas. Hopefully no terror-related disruptions. I think the real issue is longer term - assume the war in Ukraine ends, Russia has turned to other markets. How does Europe recreate its industrial ability? That may never come back.
The military operation using a natural gas pipeline sounds like a movie. To bad it had to happen at all, no matter which side is right.
Good reminder of the delicate energy situation in Europe. Thanks Doomberg.
The "leaders" of Europe, looking through a thick fog of arrogance and hubris, are unable to comprehend what is real and truth. Eventually they'll step away from saving the planet in order to save themselves... if it isn't too late by then.
Decent writing, but way too many "could be's, and what if's. We know the E.U. is a mess and controlled by unwise "KNOWNOTHINGS". The E.U. rulers motto is; POWER TO US.
Everything changes and it’s hard to predict the future.
I went to your Substack page to see what else you’ve written, and the most recent comment you wrote is:
“Bill, you are over-board in showing your age. Like most of us you would like to see “everything” FIXED before we die, “it” is not going to happen. History is full of not getting fixed. Everything changes and young grow old coping with the new and different.”
Speaking of energy and our neighbors to the north (aka Canada not Greenland). I have figured out a simple solution to get rid of tariffs or at least get everyone singing from the same hymnal. IMHO We really don't need energy tariffs at this time - - - case in point with PM Ford. So here is what President Trump should do. get rid of all tariffs on Canadian goods. Yup, zero. Then President Trump should impose just one moratorium on April 2 of only one good from the USA to Canada and prolly Greenland. Ban the export of bathroom tissue. Canada receives 87% of its tissue from the USA and there is not alternative (read as cost effective or manufacturing effective). Then, if cars are found to have TP in them, the car is confiscated at the border and if TP is found in luggage at airports the luggage is confiscated, your ticket is cancelled, and you are put on a bus to PEI. Will such a ban hurt USA tissue makers? NOPE. will it hurt the USA public? NOPE, in fact, the prices will come down. Such a move hits at the grassroots of Canada inclusive of the elite on Bay Street. this will force Ottawa to get its #$%^& together or force Carney to #$%^&*( or get off the pot. Additionally, President Trump would ban the export of round brown paper (now you cannot make a box) and bales of waste paper brown or otherwise. No harm to the USA. This ban on brown rolls and waste bales would also work for China and the EU. Time for my AM coffee. cheers from Upper Michigan.
missed a major point. Syria was backed by Russia - - - why? the prevention of gas pipelines from either Iran or Qatar going to the EU. Thus giving Russia a lock on the EU. Turkey and Greece have been all for these lines for years and that last Syria dust-up was all about this pipeline or lines. So, in winding down Ukraine, Russia "winked" and walked away from Syria. We will now see an explosion (no pun intended) in pipeline construction projects with the lines headed to the EU. Russia has now "snookered" the USA in that the USA LNG terminals are now really not needed (heck of a sunk cost) in the future for the EU. Russia is now going to complete their projects to China as planned (remember, its all about free cash flow). LNG will quickly become "old" as they are not as cost effective as a pipeline for not only the USA but for Qatar and Canada. The chess match continues.
We didn’t mention it because we do not think Qatar has any interest in building land pipelines to Europe. As mentioned in the piece, it will soon have ~19 bcf/d of LNG export capacity, a line of business which is far more lucrative than traditional pipelines.
Hi Doomy. Good analysis as always. Small suggestion. When displaying inventory graph have you considered the SEAG function on your BB terminal? This will make your chart match your word analysis and allow readers to more accurately visualize the seasonal trends you are discussing.
Yes. The SEAG function does not allow you to adjust the axis font size, which makes it unreadable for these pieces. We have complained to BBG to no avail.
Whether you believe the victory of the raid went to the Ukrainians or the Russians, the idea of 800 special forces waiting in enemy territory in a confined space leads one to imagine the sacrifices involved to pull this off. Everyone has to (1) crawl or frog walk for 15 kilometers, (2) deal with any crazies (with loaded weapons) that succumb to panic attacks from claustrophobia in the dark, (3) plan for food eaten over four days in miserable conditions, (4) at last (and probably the worst ) deal with the ramifications of every soldier having a bowel movement at least once every two days (if not more due to the circumstances). 🫢🤢 Maybe they used a bucket brigade and left a string of "relief buckets" in the rear of the column that will be found by archeologists 400 years from now.
This isn't a first for the Russians who fought in the sewers of Stalingrad in WW2. In the early 1990s, I read two or three historical books on the "Rattenkrieg" (war of the rats). The movie, "Enemy at the Gates" does not even come close to representing the foul and disgusting living and battle environment. Maybe it is now included in Russian Basic Training for new recruits - who knows?
I have given up on trying to forecast what the leaders in the EU will be doing about their energy situation. Lately, all I have heard is the EU politicians beating their chests and how they are going to open an extra large can of "Whoop Ass" on Russia after Trump's possible withdrawal from NATO. That'll be the day. 🙄
I believe when push comes to shove, the EU will find itself once again lining up to make all the wrong decisions regarding energy. I believe 2025 will be the year for natural gas and LNG. That is where I am placing my money (not investment advice). I guess we'll see. 🫣
Rigs targeting natural gas in the prolific Marcellus and Haynesville shale plays are not returning to drilling as they have in years past, this is going to shape into an interesting back half 2025. Notice Harold Hamm’s company signed an exploration agreement to explore Turkey for natural gas.
Great read. The Russians using a defunct pipeline to insert almost a battalion into Ukraine is a perfect metaphor for the EU's current military fallacy, in inverse. Great way to lead into the article. As a former member of the Big Green Machine, it occurs to me that being among the soldiers at the rearmost of that Russian pipe crawl were likely re-enacting Andy DuFresne's septic slog to freedom.
Highlights the contrary impact of Biden’s attempt to reduce LNG earlier. Jan 2024 news: "Business groups from the U.S., Europe and Japan urged President Biden to reverse his administration's pause on new LNG export permits"
“Consistent with our longstanding approach to energy markets, history has shown it is far more lucrative to fade such emergencies near their peak than to gamble on the timing of their occurrence.” Good advice that also works if “burst asset bubbles” is swapped for “emergencies”.
I think the market will allow Europe to make it thru the winter. Our friends across the pond may be significantly poorer, but they will have gas. Hopefully no terror-related disruptions. I think the real issue is longer term - assume the war in Ukraine ends, Russia has turned to other markets. How does Europe recreate its industrial ability? That may never come back.
The military operation using a natural gas pipeline sounds like a movie. To bad it had to happen at all, no matter which side is right.
Europe continues "dodging the bullet".....one of these days (winters) they won't.
Is old King coal dead Doomie? That bell has been mistakenly rung as much as the “peak oil” one.
Good reminder of the delicate energy situation in Europe. Thanks Doomberg.
The "leaders" of Europe, looking through a thick fog of arrogance and hubris, are unable to comprehend what is real and truth. Eventually they'll step away from saving the planet in order to save themselves... if it isn't too late by then.
Decent writing, but way too many "could be's, and what if's. We know the E.U. is a mess and controlled by unwise "KNOWNOTHINGS". The E.U. rulers motto is; POWER TO US.
RALPH W.
Everything changes and it’s hard to predict the future.
I went to your Substack page to see what else you’ve written, and the most recent comment you wrote is:
“Bill, you are over-board in showing your age. Like most of us you would like to see “everything” FIXED before we die, “it” is not going to happen. History is full of not getting fixed. Everything changes and young grow old coping with the new and different.”
Just so.
You should start a Substack…
Speaking of energy and our neighbors to the north (aka Canada not Greenland). I have figured out a simple solution to get rid of tariffs or at least get everyone singing from the same hymnal. IMHO We really don't need energy tariffs at this time - - - case in point with PM Ford. So here is what President Trump should do. get rid of all tariffs on Canadian goods. Yup, zero. Then President Trump should impose just one moratorium on April 2 of only one good from the USA to Canada and prolly Greenland. Ban the export of bathroom tissue. Canada receives 87% of its tissue from the USA and there is not alternative (read as cost effective or manufacturing effective). Then, if cars are found to have TP in them, the car is confiscated at the border and if TP is found in luggage at airports the luggage is confiscated, your ticket is cancelled, and you are put on a bus to PEI. Will such a ban hurt USA tissue makers? NOPE. will it hurt the USA public? NOPE, in fact, the prices will come down. Such a move hits at the grassroots of Canada inclusive of the elite on Bay Street. this will force Ottawa to get its #$%^& together or force Carney to #$%^&*( or get off the pot. Additionally, President Trump would ban the export of round brown paper (now you cannot make a box) and bales of waste paper brown or otherwise. No harm to the USA. This ban on brown rolls and waste bales would also work for China and the EU. Time for my AM coffee. cheers from Upper Michigan.
🤣
missed a major point. Syria was backed by Russia - - - why? the prevention of gas pipelines from either Iran or Qatar going to the EU. Thus giving Russia a lock on the EU. Turkey and Greece have been all for these lines for years and that last Syria dust-up was all about this pipeline or lines. So, in winding down Ukraine, Russia "winked" and walked away from Syria. We will now see an explosion (no pun intended) in pipeline construction projects with the lines headed to the EU. Russia has now "snookered" the USA in that the USA LNG terminals are now really not needed (heck of a sunk cost) in the future for the EU. Russia is now going to complete their projects to China as planned (remember, its all about free cash flow). LNG will quickly become "old" as they are not as cost effective as a pipeline for not only the USA but for Qatar and Canada. The chess match continues.
We didn’t mention it because we do not think Qatar has any interest in building land pipelines to Europe. As mentioned in the piece, it will soon have ~19 bcf/d of LNG export capacity, a line of business which is far more lucrative than traditional pipelines.
Does anyone that matters in the administration read these articles?
A few do
Everyone has a mortgage to pay, I guess that goes for the green chicken too.
No debt lifestyle here. Pay as I go.
I already cancelled.
Thanks for verifying.
Hi Doomy. Good analysis as always. Small suggestion. When displaying inventory graph have you considered the SEAG function on your BB terminal? This will make your chart match your word analysis and allow readers to more accurately visualize the seasonal trends you are discussing.
Yes. The SEAG function does not allow you to adjust the axis font size, which makes it unreadable for these pieces. We have complained to BBG to no avail.
Whether you believe the victory of the raid went to the Ukrainians or the Russians, the idea of 800 special forces waiting in enemy territory in a confined space leads one to imagine the sacrifices involved to pull this off. Everyone has to (1) crawl or frog walk for 15 kilometers, (2) deal with any crazies (with loaded weapons) that succumb to panic attacks from claustrophobia in the dark, (3) plan for food eaten over four days in miserable conditions, (4) at last (and probably the worst ) deal with the ramifications of every soldier having a bowel movement at least once every two days (if not more due to the circumstances). 🫢🤢 Maybe they used a bucket brigade and left a string of "relief buckets" in the rear of the column that will be found by archeologists 400 years from now.
This isn't a first for the Russians who fought in the sewers of Stalingrad in WW2. In the early 1990s, I read two or three historical books on the "Rattenkrieg" (war of the rats). The movie, "Enemy at the Gates" does not even come close to representing the foul and disgusting living and battle environment. Maybe it is now included in Russian Basic Training for new recruits - who knows?
I have given up on trying to forecast what the leaders in the EU will be doing about their energy situation. Lately, all I have heard is the EU politicians beating their chests and how they are going to open an extra large can of "Whoop Ass" on Russia after Trump's possible withdrawal from NATO. That'll be the day. 🙄
You can get yours here --> https://tinyurl.com/32mk8u6p .
I believe when push comes to shove, the EU will find itself once again lining up to make all the wrong decisions regarding energy. I believe 2025 will be the year for natural gas and LNG. That is where I am placing my money (not investment advice). I guess we'll see. 🫣
It won't take much of a shove ;)
Rigs targeting natural gas in the prolific Marcellus and Haynesville shale plays are not returning to drilling as they have in years past, this is going to shape into an interesting back half 2025. Notice Harold Hamm’s company signed an exploration agreement to explore Turkey for natural gas.
Maybe keep an eye on Algeria: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/france-algeria-rocked-most-serious-diplomatic-crisis-end-colonial-rule
Watching it closely
Great read. The Russians using a defunct pipeline to insert almost a battalion into Ukraine is a perfect metaphor for the EU's current military fallacy, in inverse. Great way to lead into the article. As a former member of the Big Green Machine, it occurs to me that being among the soldiers at the rearmost of that Russian pipe crawl were likely re-enacting Andy DuFresne's septic slog to freedom.
🤣