"Third, energy prices are highly inelastic, such that mere percentage points of regional supply imbalances cause wild market swings."
Uhmmm...did you mean to say energy DEMAND is highly inelastic? Because the supply-caused market swings you mention next can make for rather elastic prices, after all.
How does this pan out in light of reality? (Reality is that which doesn't go away even if you stop believing it.)
This fellow lays out the logic and realities of an all-electric pipe dream. Many succinct, easily understood arguments would be politically powerful soundbites/memes to be had. Reason, after all, is the servant(bitch) of emotion. It's most effective when well-couched in emotional appeals.
Insights into energy and how it makes the world turn have been insightful as well as profitable from an investor standpoint too. the subtle sarcasm is icing on the cake. Wishing continued success. I'll be along for the ride. Thanks
Most of the time, I agree with you. However this article is way off base….especially your fourth point in the first paragraph. Doomberg has missed a massive sea change in the executive offices of oil and gas companies….”drill baby drill’? hah!! Good luck with that! It has all changed after the 2013-2022 debacle run in energy prices. Now it is all about share buy backs and return of capital to shareholders. Oil and gas companies are no longer willing to be at the mercy of bank lending with all the virtue signalling of net zero because of the “climate Crisis”. The priority is to clear the debt and have cash balances and tell financial institutions to take a hike. Shareholders are now the only backing the companies want. You missed on this point big time and it shocks me that you could get this so wrong.
I have 35 years experience as a professional investor in the oil and gas industry. 🤷♂️ I will stand by this.
You are certainly free to disagree with us, but I’ll believe it when I see it. There are more companies in the world than just those in your investable universe. In aggregate, the industry over-produces.
My understanding is that many of the independent producers are no longer a driving force and the vast majority of the capital spending has migrated to the larger companies. In addition, with the exception of the Permian, most of the US shale basins are now on the backslope of drilling opportunities. Do you really think they will “drill baby drill” for sub economic returns??
One curious thing. Your dart landed in BC, then you shifted to Alberta and said "landing just one province to the WEST". But AB is east of BC, not west!
Either way, it's gas to nuclear for AI because anything less would be like the Right Guard commercials from the 1990s: "uncivilized".
Happy next trip around the sun team Doomy from Downunder. Pulled the pin on a paid subscription a few months back and am working through the backlog of articles and upskilling as they say. Great stuff.
It does way more than organizing search. The pace of development that we are seeing first hand would blow your mind. The open source work is like a beehive and is occurring mostly off the radar, as people are distracted by OpenAI.
UNG is my futures "spot" natural gas Doomberg LNG energy investment...WOW IT'S VOLATILE!!! Today, Dec 30, up 20%...tomorrow down 25%? Today covered my December $30 subscription...not for the faint of heart!
Speaking of "Dart West" as a LNG pile on...I would greatly appreciate a BC Nat Gas analysis naming reserve Owners/Developers to "invest" aka frack into Permian Basin North a la OXY, skip the sequestration?
Aside: Last evening just smiled driving by the Martinez refinery adjacent to Chevron Richmond! But I have a Newsom voodoo doll hanging from the rearview mirror!
Bravo and thank you for your global energy perspectives supported by FAKE THEORY the Laws of Physics, you never know? 😎
Another succinct look at global energy dynamics. My first year with the Doomberg Chicken will certainly continue! Have a great new year and thank you.
I love the chicken. Happy new year guys, and I'm eagerly awaiting your articles. :-)
"Third, energy prices are highly inelastic, such that mere percentage points of regional supply imbalances cause wild market swings."
Uhmmm...did you mean to say energy DEMAND is highly inelastic? Because the supply-caused market swings you mention next can make for rather elastic prices, after all.
Or did I miss something?
This on the future of the US energy policy distortion:
https://youtu.be/K8Nz-4eEBTw
How does this pan out in light of reality? (Reality is that which doesn't go away even if you stop believing it.)
This fellow lays out the logic and realities of an all-electric pipe dream. Many succinct, easily understood arguments would be politically powerful soundbites/memes to be had. Reason, after all, is the servant(bitch) of emotion. It's most effective when well-couched in emotional appeals.
Keep the articles coming. Have a joyous 2025
Insights into energy and how it makes the world turn have been insightful as well as profitable from an investor standpoint too. the subtle sarcasm is icing on the cake. Wishing continued success. I'll be along for the ride. Thanks
Good stuff.
A good "BACK" review. Continue the good work in 2025.
HAPPY NEW YEAR!
RALPH W.
Huzzah...
I have thoroughly enjoyed reading your brilliant pieces not to mention my enlightenment that has followed.
Thank you Doomberg. Happy New Year to you as well.
Thank you! Same to you and yours!
Most of the time, I agree with you. However this article is way off base….especially your fourth point in the first paragraph. Doomberg has missed a massive sea change in the executive offices of oil and gas companies….”drill baby drill’? hah!! Good luck with that! It has all changed after the 2013-2022 debacle run in energy prices. Now it is all about share buy backs and return of capital to shareholders. Oil and gas companies are no longer willing to be at the mercy of bank lending with all the virtue signalling of net zero because of the “climate Crisis”. The priority is to clear the debt and have cash balances and tell financial institutions to take a hike. Shareholders are now the only backing the companies want. You missed on this point big time and it shocks me that you could get this so wrong.
I have 35 years experience as a professional investor in the oil and gas industry. 🤷♂️ I will stand by this.
You are certainly free to disagree with us, but I’ll believe it when I see it. There are more companies in the world than just those in your investable universe. In aggregate, the industry over-produces.
My understanding is that many of the independent producers are no longer a driving force and the vast majority of the capital spending has migrated to the larger companies. In addition, with the exception of the Permian, most of the US shale basins are now on the backslope of drilling opportunities. Do you really think they will “drill baby drill” for sub economic returns??
The rest of the world produces oil and gas too…
We are discussing point number four in your opening paragraph.
I'm liking this piece indeed. Thank you, Doomy. The natural gas - nuclear power race to power AI will be fascinating to watch.
Sure will
Great piece, Doom.
One curious thing. Your dart landed in BC, then you shifted to Alberta and said "landing just one province to the WEST". But AB is east of BC, not west!
Either way, it's gas to nuclear for AI because anything less would be like the Right Guard commercials from the 1990s: "uncivilized".
Our dart landed west of where the news actually occurred. Read the sentence again…
Happy next trip around the sun team Doomy from Downunder. Pulled the pin on a paid subscription a few months back and am working through the backlog of articles and upskilling as they say. Great stuff.
Thanks! Enjoy the archives!
We’re really going to have a lot of excess energy if AI turns out to be a semi-hoax.
It’s not. We have friends on the cutting edge. Mind blown…
It organizes search well, makes it easier. Can ML predict the weather next Friday?
It does way more than organizing search. The pace of development that we are seeing first hand would blow your mind. The open source work is like a beehive and is occurring mostly off the radar, as people are distracted by OpenAI.
UNG is my futures "spot" natural gas Doomberg LNG energy investment...WOW IT'S VOLATILE!!! Today, Dec 30, up 20%...tomorrow down 25%? Today covered my December $30 subscription...not for the faint of heart!
Speaking of "Dart West" as a LNG pile on...I would greatly appreciate a BC Nat Gas analysis naming reserve Owners/Developers to "invest" aka frack into Permian Basin North a la OXY, skip the sequestration?
Aside: Last evening just smiled driving by the Martinez refinery adjacent to Chevron Richmond! But I have a Newsom voodoo doll hanging from the rearview mirror!
Bravo and thank you for your global energy perspectives supported by FAKE THEORY the Laws of Physics, you never know? 😎
I am one who was a freebie and took the leap. Its been one of my best investments of 2024! Thanks a million, Doomberg! Love the content!
Awesome thanks!